From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #460 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Monday, November 30 1998 Volume 02 : Number 460 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] JKHY Re: [CANSLIM] JKHY Re: [CANSLIM] The Internet (maybe CANSLIM, maybe not) Re: [CANSLIM] PDQ CHART Re: [CANSLIM] Maybe this this will end it? [CANSLIM] The Internet (maybe CANSLIM, maybe not) Re: [CANSLIM] PDQ CHART Re: [CANSLIM] PDQ CHART Re: [CANSLIM] THQI Chart Re: [CANSLIM] THQI Chart [CANSLIM] JHKY [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question Re: [CANSLIM] THQI Chart [CANSLIM] 'M' Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question Re: [CANSLIM] THQI Chart Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Ron Russell [CANSLIM] "M" Re: [CANSLIM] M cup ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 10:26:43 -0800 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] JKHY Nothing on Yahoo, I suspect it's the market. The 50 DMA is a hair over 45 and it ahs already bounced off of 47 and change today; if your stop is set much higher than that, IMHO you're not giving it enough room. Considering the buy point is 50-ish (and I haven't analyzed this breakout since I'm holding from the last false breakout), then a 10% stop puts you at 45. My stop is at 45-1/4; if it breaks that, then it has failed the past two breakouts and we're back to waiting for a base again. On 09:26 AM 11/30/98 , dbphoenix Said: > >Does anyone know of any news other than the acquisition last week? > >--Db > > > >== > >"Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > >http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > > > >_________________________________________________________ >DO YOU YAHOO!? >Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > >- > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 19:31:44 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] JKHY At 12:27 PM 30-11-98 -0500, you wrote: >what happend to JKHY today? > >Deepak The company is going bankrupt, no less! ;^) JKHY fell back in it's base on 48K volume. No big deal (yet). MMs taking it down on low volume. Should you hold or sell? It all depends on one's strategy and rules and time horizon. Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 13:35:18 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] The Internet (maybe CANSLIM, maybe not) Very interesting article Db,, thank you for posting it.. It makes me think of those people who put in market orders for this morning to buy some of those internets. Its not a kids game is it? joe - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 13:45:15 EST From: Mypiason3@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PDQ CHART Db, In looking at the chart again I am going way out on a limb thinking this may be a high tight flag. But I would appreciate your opinion on the chart? Whether it is doing a normal correction. I feel the stock during the next two weeks will rebound. I am just trying to practice my charting. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 13:46:32 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Maybe this this will end it? Point taken Tim.. I just don't think its anyones job to protect the "impressionable members ". I think they know when they plunk there dollars down that it isn't CANSLIM and that they are taking a risk, but like you said this is a CANSLIM board. I won't clutter it with talk of internets again,, Unless of course they are "cautionary" posts.. Regards joe I love adjusting those stops everyday,, as long as its up.. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 13:05:02 -0600 (CST) From: mckeener@ix.netcom.com Subject: [CANSLIM] The Internet (maybe CANSLIM, maybe not) Db, Thanks for the post. Excellent. Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 14:03:36 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PDQ CHART Big run up from 6 to 10,, (67% in less than two weeks) just taking a breather is all,, volume is dropping, looks to have a little support at 8 back at the beginning of Sept , and the first week of its move,, bet it pops off 8.00 and its 50 DMA.. If it violated 8.00 I wouldn't mess with it. For what its worth .. joe - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 11:13:39 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] PDQ CHART <> I'm still not sure we're looking at the same thing. The stock I'm looking at has been in a decline since the end of April and hasn't recovered even a third of its loss. I can't think of any possible reason to be interested in this other than a bottom-fish, but bottom-fishing has been out of season for over a month now. Since you asked my opinion only of the chart, I won't get into the RS or GRS, but it's not a chart that anyone would buy at this stage of the cycle. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 20:17:15 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THQI Chart Tim wrote: >I was in it from 17-ish and got bounced out on the "cup" with a nice little >profit. Congratulations, Tim. Now, I'm hoping you will grant me a glimpse of the reasoning you used to buy this stock at that particular time? I know about your CS fundie scan, so the fundies must OK. Let us thus concentrate on the chart at the time you bought, if you will. What made you decide to buy it at that time when the price was 17-ish (looking at the chart I'd guess the approx date was 22/10?)? Was it purely a break of the downtrendline on high volume that said 'buy' to you. How would you describe the chart pattern (per WON) back then when you bought it? You obviously didn't wait for it to clear the mid-point of the 'W' at 18.3, so that was not the reason you bought it, right? We had a follow-through day on 10/15. What made you decide that it was a legitimate follow-through day (we had had 2 false ones before) so that you could go out a start buying stocks like THQI on a break of the downtrend line? I'd like to know since many HGSers (me included even though I hardly know a thing about HGS) were worrying about a multitude of 'checklist'-items that were still saying 'be carefull, be very careful'. HGSers were busy waiting for the retest of the lows. Something that didn't materialise. I believe many HGSers started to 'trust' the newborn uptrend more fully when the NAZ broke the 200SMA with authority. That happened around the first week of November. By that time THQI was nearing the mid-20's. Already a 30 to 50% gain. I deliberatly refer to HGS as I know some will enjoy ridiculing it's multitude of 'items to watch' to determine a legit new uptrend. (Excuse my sarcasm here.) Since this last follow through day on 15/10 was indeed a good follow-through signal, CSers had a headstart on HGRers. But what about the last 2 false follow-through days? Did you also buy from chart patterns like this one? If not, what made you decide that this time it was different? Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 11:47:15 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THQI Chart <> To a large extent, we agree here. The number of hurdles that one must jump in order to reach a point where it can be "safe" to invest can become so numerous that one is very nearly at the top before all the lights are greeen. On the other hand, I've found the signs of topping activity to be extremely handy. One thing HGS does which CS does not do is allow for a variety of investing styles, three to be exact. Thus at least one if not two classes of HGS investor would have been on the market like a duck on a junebug as soon as that first follow-through day arrived. Personally, I would have waited for the W midpoint (and did), particularly since it coincided with a penetration of the 200d and because this buypoint is more widely recognized. But you're right that CS "grants permission" before HGS does for the bulk of its fans. The problem many of us had at the time of the first follow-through day was finding CS chart patterns. This is something I've been working on over the past six weeks, though it could be another eight years before we have another correction of that magnitude. There may have been CWHs and Ws at the midpoint on 10/15, but there weren't many. So CS's earlier signal may have been a moot one given the restrictions on what are considered to be legitimate CS chart patterns. Bottom line is that next time I won't be looking for standard CS patterns at the follow-through day. Unfortunately, neither CS nor HGS are going to be of help here. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 15:02:05 -0500 From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] JHKY I have been following this one. I like everything about it except the ADV, which is acceptable by CANSLIM standards. I was ready to take the plunge this morning and waited. It went down and bounced back at about the 17DMA, also around 48 is where I had the old resistance, that I am hoping is the new support. It started creeping back up in the afternoon. The volume was light. I had this feeling of doubt if it was the right thing to do so I only committed a portion of what I had originally intended. I got it at 50, could have did better but waited to see if it was going to turn around first. I put the stop at $46. By the time most of you read this I could already be out of it. Even with a perfect CANSLIM plan you can be wrong. I am not to worried about that. I just want to know if I handled it properly regardless of how it works out. I would appreciate any constructive criticism. Charlie - - ------------------------------ Date: 30 Nov 1998 11:16:08 -0700 From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Changing your canslim subscription This is a monthly posting to the CANLSLIM group. Frequently, people sign up for the canslim list and then are overwhelmed by the volume of the email. There are two remedies for this problem: 1) You can leave our group, or 2) you can switch to the digest version which "conglomerates" many canslim messages into one large message. To change your configuration, email a message to: majordomo@xmission.com The remove yourself from the canslim list, write in the body of the email: unsubscribe canslim To add yourself to the digest version of the canslim list, write in the body of the email: subscribe canslim-digest For general help with majordomo commands, write in the body of the email: help If you need further clarification, write me directly at: canslim-owner@lists.xmission.com Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury - CANSLIM list admin / owner - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 14:24:20 -0600 From: mglieske@us.ibm.com Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question Greetings group! I am a 38 years old and live in Chicago IL. I have always been fascinated with the stock market (and with making money!). However, to date I pretty much invest in mutual funds. I recently read "How to Make Money In Stocks" and want to try my hand at individual stock picking. My time is pretty limited so I have a hard time pouring through IBD hard copy. Ideally, it would be great to have as much of CANSLIM automated as possible. This is where I am looking for advice. I saw Ron Russell's weekly screen list. This is the kind of thing I am looking for in other aspects of CANSLIM as well (Institutional sponsorship, vol percent change, general market indicatores, etc.). Are there places on the web were I can find this information? Thanks! Mike L. ____________________________________________________________________ Michael G. Lieske / IBM Field Applications Engineer (847) 981-6458 t/l 788 - 6458 e-mail: mglieske@us.ibm.com ____________________________________________________________________ - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 15:39:39 -0800 From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question Mike, Greetings, I'm and ex-IBMer myself. Used to spend a lot of time in Chicago with Grainger and Walgreens. Anyhow I use Quotes Plus 2, www.qp2.com, which has fundamentals and run a couple of scans one of which is stocks making a new high after basing for 6 weeks, (look for longer I've learned its better to do the final screening than to miss a great one because the software is too picky. And the other is to look at stock with volume surges of 50% closing in the top 75% of their range. Takes, 15-30 minutes to review every night and keeps you in step with things. Take a good look at the 26 week articles on the ibd website www.investors.com they clarify a lot of things. Another way to help is to pick some favorite stocks and watch them. Hope this helps, Peter Newell - -----Original Message----- From: mglieske@us.ibm.com To: canslim@xmission.com Date: Monday, November 30, 1998 12:27 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question > > >Greetings group! > >I am a 38 years old and live in Chicago IL. > >I have always been fascinated with the stock market (and with making >money!). However, to date I pretty much invest in mutual funds. I >recently read "How to Make Money In Stocks" and want to try my hand at >individual stock picking. > >My time is pretty limited so I have a hard time pouring through IBD hard >copy. > >Ideally, it would be great to have as much of CANSLIM automated as >possible. This is where I am looking for advice. > >I saw Ron Russell's weekly screen list. This is the kind of thing I am >looking for in other aspects of CANSLIM as well (Institutional sponsorship, >vol percent change, general market indicatores, etc.). Are there places on >the web were I can find this information? > >Thanks! >Mike L. > >____________________________________________________________________ >Michael G. Lieske / IBM Field Applications Engineer > (847) 981-6458 t/l 788 - 6458 e-mail: mglieske@us.ibm.com >____________________________________________________________________ > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 15:44:26 -0800 From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question Mike, Greetings, I'm and ex-IBMer myself. Used to spend a lot of time in Chicago with Grainger and Walgreens. Anyhow I use Quotes Plus 2, www.qp2.com, which has fundamentals and run a couple of scans one of which is stocks making a new high after basing for 6 weeks, (look for longer I've learned its better to do the final screening than to miss a great one because the software is too picky. And the other is to look at stock with volume surges of 50% closing in the top 75% of their range. Takes, 15-30 minutes to review every night and keeps you in step with things. Take a good look at the 26 week articles on the ibd website www.investors.com they clarify a lot of things. Another way to help is to pick some favorite stocks and watch them. Hope this helps, Peter Newell - -----Original Message----- From: mglieske@us.ibm.com To: canslim@xmission.com Date: Monday, November 30, 1998 12:27 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question > > >Greetings group! > >I am a 38 years old and live in Chicago IL. > >I have always been fascinated with the stock market (and with making >money!). However, to date I pretty much invest in mutual funds. I >recently read "How to Make Money In Stocks" and want to try my hand at >individual stock picking. > >My time is pretty limited so I have a hard time pouring through IBD hard >copy. > >Ideally, it would be great to have as much of CANSLIM automated as >possible. This is where I am looking for advice. > >I saw Ron Russell's weekly screen list. This is the kind of thing I am >looking for in other aspects of CANSLIM as well (Institutional sponsorship, >vol percent change, general market indicatores, etc.). Are there places on >the web were I can find this information? > >Thanks! >Mike L. > >____________________________________________________________________ >Michael G. Lieske / IBM Field Applications Engineer > (847) 981-6458 t/l 788 - 6458 e-mail: mglieske@us.ibm.com >____________________________________________________________________ > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 15:45:53 -0800 From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question Mike, Greetings, I'm and ex-IBMer myself. Used to spend a lot of time in Chicago with Grainger and Walgreens. Anyhow I use Quotes Plus 2, www.qp2.com, which has fundamentals and run a couple of scans one of which is stocks making a new high after basing for 6 weeks, (look for longer I've learned its better to do the final screening than to miss a great one because the software is too picky. And the other is to look at stock with volume surges of 50% closing in the top 75% of their range. Takes, 15-30 minutes to review every night and keeps you in step with things. Take a good look at the 26 week articles on the ibd website www.investors.com they clarify a lot of things. Another way to help is to pick some favorite stocks and watch them. Hope this helps, Peter Newell - -----Original Message----- From: mglieske@us.ibm.com To: canslim@xmission.com Date: Monday, November 30, 1998 12:27 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question > > >Greetings group! > >I am a 38 years old and live in Chicago IL. > >I have always been fascinated with the stock market (and with making >money!). However, to date I pretty much invest in mutual funds. I >recently read "How to Make Money In Stocks" and want to try my hand at >individual stock picking. > >My time is pretty limited so I have a hard time pouring through IBD hard >copy. > >Ideally, it would be great to have as much of CANSLIM automated as >possible. This is where I am looking for advice. > >I saw Ron Russell's weekly screen list. This is the kind of thing I am >looking for in other aspects of CANSLIM as well (Institutional sponsorship, >vol percent change, general market indicatores, etc.). Are there places on >the web were I can find this information? > >Thanks! >Mike L. > >____________________________________________________________________ >Michael G. Lieske / IBM Field Applications Engineer > (847) 981-6458 t/l 788 - 6458 e-mail: mglieske@us.ibm.com >____________________________________________________________________ > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 15:46:36 -0800 From: "Peter Newell" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question Mike, Greetings, I'm and ex-IBMer myself. Used to spend a lot of time in Chicago with Grainger and Walgreens. Anyhow I use Quotes Plus 2, www.qp2.com, which has fundamentals and run a couple of scans one of which is stocks making a new high after basing for 6 weeks, (look for longer I've learned its better to do the final screening than to miss a great one because the software is too picky. And the other is to look at stock with volume surges of 50% closing in the top 75% of their range. Takes, 15-30 minutes to review every night and keeps you in step with things. Take a good look at the 26 week articles on the ibd website www.investors.com they clarify a lot of things. Another way to help is to pick some favorite stocks and watch them. Hope this helps, Peter Newell - -----Original Message----- From: mglieske@us.ibm.com To: canslim@xmission.com Date: Monday, November 30, 1998 12:27 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question > > >Greetings group! > >I am a 38 years old and live in Chicago IL. > >I have always been fascinated with the stock market (and with making >money!). However, to date I pretty much invest in mutual funds. I >recently read "How to Make Money In Stocks" and want to try my hand at >individual stock picking. > >My time is pretty limited so I have a hard time pouring through IBD hard >copy. > >Ideally, it would be great to have as much of CANSLIM automated as >possible. This is where I am looking for advice. > >I saw Ron Russell's weekly screen list. This is the kind of thing I am >looking for in other aspects of CANSLIM as well (Institutional sponsorship, >vol percent change, general market indicatores, etc.). Are there places on >the web were I can find this information? > >Thanks! >Mike L. > >____________________________________________________________________ >Michael G. Lieske / IBM Field Applications Engineer > (847) 981-6458 t/l 788 - 6458 e-mail: mglieske@us.ibm.com >____________________________________________________________________ > > > >- > - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 22:16:17 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THQI Chart At 11:47 AM 30-11-98 -0800, you wrote: > ><multitude of 'items to watch' to determine a legit new uptrend. >(Excuse my >sarcasm here.) Since this last follow through day on 15/10 was indeed a >good follow-through signal, CSers had a headstart on HGRers.>> > >To a large extent, we agree here. I remember corresponding with someone via email about all of this a while ago. We agreed on practically everything you said her. There is no easy answer. One can't decisively say which technique is the best in all circumstances. In hint sight one can make some interesting and even clever observations. Problem is, it is hard to put one self in the same emotional state that one was in at that point in time (around 15/10). That brings us back to the posts on (mass) psychology a few months or so ago. It is not that easy to stay uninfluenced by all the opinions, news, chatter, etc. Mass psychology or group behaviour is one of the most important parts of investing IMHO. We have enjoyed some example about group behaviour on this list recently. Look at how the group decided to go back to CS a while ago and then slowly started to deviated from CS again to the point where it was 'acceptable' to talk about non-CS stocks as long as they were internet related. After a while more and more people were upset (me included) to see some non-CS internets make incredible runs. Rockets were taking off everywhere and it was hard not to feel 'left behind'. Yes, even those who held MSPG, AOL or YHOO (like me) were made to look like 'dumbo's' when one compare the returns of those who bought these secondary internet stocks (BAMM, NAVR, CYSP, etc) enjoyed 50%, 100% and more returns in a matter of days or sometimes even hours. The returns these secondary internets provided were more than many of us make in a whole year. Back to CS/HGS. Personally I've not yet decided which bottom gauging technique I like best. I do not have enough experience to say something intelligent about that. But what I can say is that the follow-through day is very good IMHO, even at 80% succes rate. It is simple and elegant. On the other hand I like HGS very much as it has kept me out of trouble during the 2 previous bear market rallies where the ralley failed shortly after the follow-through day. Last but not least: Just so the part of the message I was primarily interested in gets answered: Tim, I really would like to see your explaination: re yor buy point on THQI, if you would be so kind. Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 22:24:07 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] 'M' I guess it is obvious to all of us that today was a distribution day (down on heavy volume)? I'm off to read that part in HTMISS again where WON writes about 'when the pro's sell'. Johan (rubbin' hands once agian, but I hope you all we forgive me... ;^) PS: Just to make really sure everyone gets it: This post is NOT intended for the humour-impaired. Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 13:59:28 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Mike Lieske - and a question For financial information, go to http://www.stocksite.com/. If you select "Financials", you'll receive up to three years' earnings--basic, diluted and before charges (if you click "Income Statement"). The usual information such as institutional sponsorship, etc., is provided under Profile, Estimates, etc. If you want SQLY and/or rolling quarter percentage increases, you can easily set up formula blocks in a spreadsheet to do this for you. For screening, select Advanced Screening at http://www.dailystocks.com/. This is the only site I know of that allows you to screen not only for earnings increases but earnings acceleration as well. For RS, EPS, GRS, A/D and other information, go to http://members.aol.com/RANord/ All the EPS, RS, GRS, etc. numbers are there and it's all downloadable to Excel. You can sort and rearrange and track to your hearts' content. He updates the list once a week. or http://www.delphi.com/invest/ Regarding the latter, you must register, but it's free. Select Investor's Forum or "forum", then go to the CANSLIM list (this comprises the bulk of the discussion). Select the "Weekly Stock List" or "Top ERG List" or "Box 7 List" for stocks, or the "Weekly IBD Calculated Group RS List" for groups. http://www1.FreeEDGAR.com/home.htm This is like EDGAR, but faster, easier, and friendlier. If you've avoided SEC filings in the past, give it one more try. For charts, for percentage gainers in price and volume, and for stocks reaching new highs and lows (among other things), go to BigCharts (http://www.bigcharts.com/). If you're an intermediate-term investor, as I am, use the following settings: Time: YTD (then six-month and three-month, if you like) Frequency: Daily (or Weekly, if you prefer) Moving Averages: EMA(3-Line). Type in 17 or 20, 50, 200. Upper Indicators: None Lower Indicators: Volume+ Chart Style: Change "Chart Size" to "large". If you want it even larger, select "Print Chart" and "OK". Then you can print or not, as you prefer. Make these your defaults. You can change your settings, such as Time, as you wish, but as long as you don't save the changes, the default settings will remain as they are. What to do with all this information is the trick, but, at a minimum, all you need to know is contained within these sites. For keeping up with news, upgrades/downgrades, price movement, etc., you can't do better than a Yahoo portfolio, which is also free. But setting that up is a whole 'nother post, and the instructions at Yahoo are pretty clear. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 14:08:07 -0800 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] THQI Chart On 11:17 AM 11/30/98 , Johan Van Houtven Said: >Tim wrote: >>I was in it from 17-ish and got bounced out on the "cup" with a nice little >>profit. > >Congratulations, Tim. Now, I'm hoping you will grant me a glimpse of the >reasoning you used to buy this stock at that particular time? > >I know about your CS fundie scan, so the fundies must OK. Let us thus >concentrate on the chart at the time you bought, if you will. > >What made you decide to buy it at that time when the price was 17-ish >(looking at the chart I'd guess the approx date was 22/10?)? Was it purely >a break of the downtrendline on high volume that said 'buy' to you. Yes. >How >would you describe the chart pattern (per WON) back then when you bought >it? You obviously didn't wait for it to clear the mid-point of the 'W' at >18.3, so that was not the reason you bought it, right? > Risky. I was trading more off of the breakout plus "N" than anything else. Specifically, their earnings report which hinted that the analysts were behind the 8-ball and a spate of TV commercials for their new games which seems to be generating revenue, investor enthusiasm, or both. Just a shame it had to correct >10%; would have been upo 75% by now. >We had a follow-through day on 10/15. What made you decide that it was a >legitimate follow-through day (we had had 2 false ones before) so that you >could go out a start buying stocks like THQI on a break of the downtrend line? > Guts, stupidity, I dunno. I just decided that day was a good enough follow through for me. I also bot JKHY GMSTF PAYX AOL and a few others about the same time. >I'd like to know since many HGSers (me included even though I hardly know a >thing about HGS) were worrying about a multitude of 'checklist'-items that >were still saying 'be carefull, be very careful'. HGSers were busy waiting >for the retest of the lows. Something that didn't materialise. I believe >many HGSers started to 'trust' the newborn uptrend more fully when the NAZ >broke the 200SMA with authority. That happened around the first week of >November. By that time THQI was nearing the mid-20's. Already a 30 to 50% >gain. > Their checklist is too involved for me. I typically do all my work on Sunday evening while everyone else is watching TV. Including scans, looking at charts, etc. I don't have the time to do more than a couple of fundamental scans and one check of the DJIA and NAZ before deciding whether to buy breakouts the coming week or not. >I deliberatly refer to HGS as I know some will enjoy ridiculing it's >multitude of 'items to watch' to determine a legit new uptrend. (Excuse my >sarcasm here.) Since this last follow through day on 15/10 was indeed a >good follow-through signal, CSers had a headstart on HGRers. But what about >the last 2 false follow-through days? Did you also buy from chart patterns >like this one? If not, what made you decide that this time it was different? > I got bounced out of a couple fresh buys like DELL and CSCO before Oct 8. Live and learn. > > >Johan > Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 19:55:58 -0500 From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Intro: Ron Russell <> Thanks for the welcome Tom. As far as focusing on sectors, I guess the closest I come is to following the Ian Woodward HGS model and the Industry groups he highlights. I do place a high premium on group strength and rotation and while I do favor the HGS groups, I'm not beyond investing in other groups if there is money to be made. A casein point, I made great money during the August and September Bear market by going long a bunch of Electrical Utilities. Having said all of that, your suspicions are close to the mark. I am most comfortable in the Tech stocks (not just software) and some of the Financials. As far as the screen is concerned, I have been considering tightening up the criteria for a while. The price is a definite as I would never invest in a $7 stock myself. I don't even know why I ever set it to $7 in the first place. I just have to decide where I'll move it to - probably $10 to start. The EPS > 69 is another throw back to Ian Woodward and his "Box 7 Turn Arounds". Essentially he has determined that O'Neil/IBD/DG assigns an EPS rating of 74 - 76 to stocks that have faltered briefly (1 or 2 quarters) and are on the mend. These stocks are good candidates in a strong market IF they can post two successive quarters with 100%+ EPS growth. I have had great success with these in the past and have simply widened the criteria slightly. I guess I'm also a little bit more momentum oriented so I put more weight on RS and Alpha, but I don't totally ignore earnings. Finally, I am planning to add a group strength test also but have not decided where to set it. My thinking is to use 60+ since that would correspond to "A" and "B" rated groups. Ron PS. I had an unbelievable response to my list offer. I'll try to send out the latest to everyone who asked a little later. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 20:58:39 -0500 From: Jeffry White <"postwhit@sover.net"@sover.net> Subject: [CANSLIM] "M" Sentiment numbers up another notch late last week...Bulls at 57.9%, Bears under 30%...Puts/Calls ratio at 5 year low which is bearish... distribution day on Tuesday last confirmed with a smashing down day today on huge volume...the 'nuts (leaders) are showing weakness after exhausting runs... danger... %'s favor the downside here for a spell, I think. Could be short-lived with another rally to the highs before it dies a dramatic death... For a cover signal, look for a multi-day low in the downside with a reversal to the high of the day, unchanged to higher on an increase in daily volume... JW - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 30 Nov 1998 21:02:25 -0500 From: "Frank V. Wolynski" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M cup At 07:47 11/30/98 -0600, mckeener@ix.netcom.com wrote: >Frank, > ><it will tell you everything.> > >Would you explain your sentence in just a >bit more detail? Thanks. > >Mary > > Mary I'll sure give it a try. Dr. Elders has the best analogy for my purpose. Divergences are one of the technicians best tools in determining the power behind a move. If the Bears win the day in selling more than the Bulls can absorb, where were the Bears the most successful? Where were they the least successful? If they couldn't run an index down with their selling, then buyers either met the selling pressure or the Bears were not as vicious in their selling as one might have at first thought. You don't know which it is. The divergence occurs when one of the indexes has less pressure than others. This usually signals some redeeming strength that the Bears were not willing to tackle or enough Bulls existed to counter the selling. Again, you never know which it is. The only clue is the volume. Another can be specifically ffff,0000,0000what was being sold or bought. Now one day in itself does not usually offer enough insight to determine where strength lies, however I have observed that during Oct-Nov of 1997 Banks and Airlines held up fairly well considering the corrective action taking place. During the following 2-3 months, Banks and Airlines led the pack to new highs. We skip ahead to October of 1998 and find that on a Relative Basis, Technology held up better than other sectors/groups. Some may argue that Semi's did not, but Technology is bigger than just semiconductors. I track the Dow Jones Industry Sectors/Groups and found that at the Low of October 8, Technology had the best Relative Strength of all the Sectors. Not surprising that Tech performed the best during the following 6-8 weeks. The Indexes were setting new lows during that period, but not the Dow Jones Technology Sector. In fact the Dow Jones technology sector corrected the least of the 7 sectors. Thus a divergence. So how does this relate to what I stated? Todays action describes it better than I possibly could. ffff,0000,0000In the report below note the action of the Russell 2000! I cut and pasted the Holt Stock Report Indexes section from: http://metro.turnpike.net/holt/curr.htm#VOLmt50 I N D I C E S, A V E R A G E S Chg% Last Change Open High Low YTD% - -3.73% 699.05 -27.12 AMEX Cputer Tech Idx 726.17 729.39 698.68 59.00% - -2.59% 675.02 -17.94 AMEX Institution Idx 692.96 693.13 675.02 - -36.00% - -2.02% 979.24 -20.22 AMEX Major Market Idx 999.46 999.46 979.24 16.70% - -2.75% 443.34 -12.56 AMEX Oil Idx 455.9 455.9 443.34 - -2.50% - -2.11% 2821.52 -60.87 Dow J Composite Avg 2882.54 2882.54 2821.52 8.60% - -2.32% 9116.55 -216.53 Dow J Industrial Avg 9333.08 9333.08 9116.55 15.20% - -1.51% 3031.23 -46.58 Dow J Trans Avg 3078.59 3079.5 3029.42 - -5.80% - -2.07% 303.52 -6.41 Dow J Utility Avg 309.9 309.9 303.46 11.60% - -1.72% 1851.23 -32.4 NASD Banks 1882.12 1885.89 1851.16 - -10.70% - -3.32% 1949.54 -66.9 NASD Composite 2023.66 2025.04 1949.54 24.60% - -2.18% 1905.61 -42.39 NASD Financial Idx 1948 1948.14 1905.61 - -6.30% - -2.07% 1215.28 -25.71 NASD Industrial Idx 1251.17 1252.2 1215.2 0.60% 0.08% 1719.23 1.29 NASD Insurance Idx 1725.76 1726.82 1713.15 - -4.70% - -1.25% 918.93 -11.62 NASD Transp Idx % 931.29 932.8 916.78 - -12.60 - -3.35% 884.44 -30.65 NASD NMS Comp 918.27 918.89 884.44 24.90% - -1.97% 571.5 -11.5 NYSE Composite 583 583 571.5 12.00% - -2.25% 511.99 -11.77 NYSE Finance 523.76 523.76 511.99 3.60% - -1.85% 712.82 -13.44 NYSE Industrials 726.26 726.26 712.82 13.30% - -1.75% 450.45 -8 NYSE Transportation 458.45 459.76 450.42 - -2.20% - -2.32% 414.81 -9.85 NYSE Utilities 424.66 424.66 414.81 23.40% - -2.31% 577.19 -13.63 S & P 100 Idx 590.82 591.25 577.19 25.10% - -2.41% 1163.63 -28.7 S & P 500 Idx 1192.33 1192.72 1163.63 19.90% - -1.08% 397.75 -4.34 Russel 2000 Idx 402.09 403.14 397.15 - -8.40% - -2.02% 979.24 -20.22 Major Market Idx 999.46 999.46 979.24 16.70% - -1.66% 550.71 -9.27 Willshire Sm Cap Idx 560.37 562.14 549.85 - -6.30% - -3.60% 395.43 -14.78 High Technology Idx 410.67 410.67 395.24 37.10% - -1.49% 891.2 -13.48 Value Line Arith Idx 904.57 905.07 890.81 2.20% They maintain archives at the site, and you can get back reports for days you have under scrutiny. http://wuecon.wustl.edu/holt/holt.html Remember one day does not a trend make, but over a period of down or up days, you should have no trouble spotting the leading sectors/groups and the indexes holding up or advancing the best. Regards, I hope this helps, Frank Wolynski - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #460 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.