From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #468 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Tuesday, December 8 1998 Volume 02 : Number 468 In this issue: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ [CANSLIM] BOP Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ [CANSLIM] new site Re: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs Re: [CANSLIM] new site [CANSLIM] IBI - Re: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - 12/04/1998 [CANSLIM] LXK Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ [CANSLIM] MMGR Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ [CANSLIM] Technical stuff: oil service stocks [Connie Mack] Re: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff: oil service stocks [Connie Mack] Re: [CANSLIM] Security SW [CANSLIM] On Sentiment? Re: [CANSLIM] On Sentiment? [CANSLIM] Market Watch [CANSLIM] CLFY Re: [CANSLIM] Security SW [CANSLIM] Re CLFY and SW Enterprise [CANSLIM] .com Internet stocks [CANSLIM] Correction of general ignorance. {Connie Mack} [CANSLIM] M ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 19:08:42 -0500 From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ Patrick, I took your advice and printed out a copy of the NAZ for 5 years. I found that the 10% over the 200 DMA was a done deal every time in fact it was heigher. However the 24% over the previous low was interesting. There were 5 major corrections each was at least 24% above the previous low. The highest was 39%. The lowest was the recent correction was only up 17% from the previous low. That one was up 30% from the prior. The drop from the 17% point which was over 2000 was down to about 1340 and now we are up to 2040 which is 34% which is the second highest. I think Ian is pretty good at this and feel like I want to listen to his recommendations. OTOH, I keep getting opinions like if it is over 2040 it is time to buy. So do I sell the far and buy stocks or run for cover? Charlie - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 20:08:04 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ Charlie, There's a grave danger in trying to anticipate what will transpire in the future on the basis of what has gone on before. Conditions over the past five years, just as sentiments, have changed dramatically. As little as two years ago, the Asian flu had not even been heard of, the only real question in the equation was how long the US economy could continue to expand. There was little thought being given to global economies, and the mere idea that Greenspan would cut rates for the benefit of the global economy, esp at the potential risk of domestic inflation, was heresy. Another risk is that predictive analysis is not CANSLIM. Note Wm O'Neil's words on trailing PE ratios vs forecasted ones (1st edition HTMMIS, Chapter 2, pp. 18-20). It's not so much what a company (or a collection of companies, e.g. the market) has done before, it's what it's expected to do in the future. Personally, I think Nasdaq's in dangerously overbot territory right now, but that's not to say that it won't break 2100, or even 2200, in the next few weeks (or even days, for that matter). I wish it would take a few weeks off and consolidate, a chart at the highs but basing like the R2000 would give me a much better feeling about "M", esp with NYSE looking so weak. Tom W - -----Original Message----- From: Charles Cangialosi To: canslim Cc: pwahl@postoffice.worldnet.att.net Date: Monday, December 07, 1998 7:09 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ Patrick, I took your advice and printed out a copy of the NAZ for 5 years. I found that the 10% over the 200 DMA was a done deal every time in fact it was heigher. However the 24% over the previous low was interesting. There were 5 major corrections each was at least 24% above the previous low. The highest was 39%. The lowest was the recent correction was only up 17% from the previous low. That one was up 30% from the prior. The drop from the 17% point which was over 2000 was down to about 1340 and now we are up to 2040 which is 34% which is the second highest. I think Ian is pretty good at this and feel like I want to listen to his recommendations. OTOH, I keep getting opinions like if it is over 2040 it is time to buy. So do I sell the far and buy stocks or run for cover? Charlie - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 20:18:41 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: [CANSLIM] BOP Anyone know anything about this BOP indicator of Telechart 2000? I have owned SDTI for about 6 weeks now, and the past few days the BOP indicator has gone into distribution from accumulation while price is still rising, looks like its coming into some overhead resistance but anyone see any reason why I should cash it in?? I have my stop set at mentally at 13.50,, I have some support around 14, and it was upgraded today. This stock isn't CS. joe - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 20:27:19 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ >>>>I wish it would take a few weeks off and consolidate, a chart at the highs but basing like the R2000 would give me a much better feeling about "M", esp with NYSE looking so weak.<<<<< I'll sure second that... A nice step to rest on would make me feel better about continuing up.. joe - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 20:40:22 -0500 From: "james sullivan" Subject: [CANSLIM] new site i just found this site...hope someone finds it useful! http://www.justquotes.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 20:58:25 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DGO New Highs Tom, Thanks for taking the time to post that list,, I just moved it into TC 2000 and will be sifting through it.. Recognized plenty of old friends in it,, also was already in a couple of them.. Thanks joe - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 18:04:30 -0800 (PST) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] new site Cool site, James. Thanks. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 20:58:05 EST From: Eatstock@aol.com Subject: [CANSLIM] IBI - I noticed that IBI has just announced a web site and made it onto Rons list. It had strong volume today with little price change. This is the company which owns Victorias Secret. Now we all know this is a winning product line... I may take a small stake if it doesnt gap too far from tangibility. Let me know what you guys think..TA wise, CS wise Thanks Chris - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 07 Dec 1998 18:10:16 PST From: "S Menon" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - 12/04/1998 Ron, Thanks for sharing the list with us. I think I have found a good one from your last list with >$7 criteria - CMED, it's getting ready to break out. Looks like a good company. I noticed this company last year but it went down with the RUT and I dropped it from my watch list. Any opinion before I take a plunge ? Thanks SMenon >From: "Ronald J. Russell, Jr." >To: "Canslim-Digest \(E-mail\)" >Subject: [CANSLIM] Weekly Stock List - 12/04/1998 >Date: Sun, 6 Dec 1998 23:22:02 -0500 >Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >All, > >I tightened up the selection criteria this week. Here's what I am now using: > >EPS > 69 >RS > 84 >GRS > 59 (New Criteria) >A/D = "A" or "B" >CLOSE > 10.00 (Was > 7.00) >30 Day ADV > 75,000 > >The result was to bring the list down to 245. > >Trade Well, >Ron > > > ______________________________________________________ Get Your Private, Free Email at http://www.hotmail.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 21:24:08 -0500 From: "james sullivan" Subject: [CANSLIM] LXK LXK was posted here just recently, as a part of someone's research...didn't save the message :( Does anyone know (or willing to guess) the reason(s) behind the way it was traded today?? Thanks!! - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 21:57:56 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ From: "Charles Cangialosi" To: "canslim" > I think Ian is pretty good at this and feel like I want to listen to his > recommendations. OTOH, I keep getting opinions like if it is over 2040 it is > time to buy. So do I sell the far and buy stocks or run for cover? Ian certainly is better at this than I am. I think Tom said most of what I was thinking. I try not to anticipate where the market is going. I do kind of try to figure out where it is going, but I don't act on that opinion too often, usually wrong. I would say if you have stocks with a profit, hang in there, if you see something you like breakout and you have some cash, jump on it. If you keep the discipline and cut losses at 8-10%, nothing too bad can happen. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 7 Dec 1998 22:05:14 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] MMGR Medical Manager (MMGR) looks sort of primed to take off here. EPS and RS > 90, GRS is weak at C, other numbers (letters) from IBD are A's. Average volume is 170K. - - ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 07 Dec 1998 21:07:57 -0800 From: Tim Fisher Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NASDAQ I don't have a clue where it is going, all I know is I "think" the big cap techs breaking out lately will hold; picked up LU and INTC (NON-CANSLIM) on limit orders this AM at an attractive price, compared to their closing price today. I like some of the new ones on my scan also, esp. AEOS PGEX and OSTE but they need to base a bit and I am all in again, so have to watch them from the sidelines ;( At 09:57 PM 12/7/98 -0800, you wrote: >From: "Charles Cangialosi" >To: "canslim" > >> I think Ian is pretty good at this and feel like I want to listen to his >> recommendations. OTOH, I keep getting opinions like if it is over 2040 it is >> time to buy. So do I sell the far and buy stocks or run for cover? > >Ian certainly is better at this than I am. I think Tom said most of >what I was thinking. I try not to anticipate where the market is >going. I do kind of try to figure out where it is going, but I don't act >on that opinion too often, usually wrong. I would say if you have >stocks with a profit, hang in there, if you see something you like >breakout and you have some cash, jump on it. If you keep the >discipline and cut losses at 8-10%, nothing too bad can happen. > Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 08 Dec 1998 09:14:16 -0500 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff: oil service stocks [Connie Mack] Oil service stocks have been nearly demolished. The smell of death and oil is as nauseating as it is depressing. Hard to imagine how oil can go much lower. Now might be a good time to be presumptuous and take a look at the oil well services. You'll see some double and triple bottoms, an occasional STO and MACD buy signal, and an even rarer MF or OBV, but not both. You might look at these: OII OLOG RIG UTI I will try to buy small lots this morning. For those who are still investing/trading in MU, AMD, and NOVL, you have some delicious profits. I am still day/swing trading all three (and no others). If you have not taken any profits, you ought to consider letting go of a half or a third of any position. Greed is a lovely succabus whom no one has ever tamed. I have advised my faculty stock group, some of whom have almost doubled their positions in MU, to let go half of all positions in each of the three stocks. Bright people are sometimes superlatively greedy. They are always textbook wise and, therefore, rational--except about the irrational market. Two in the group have made more than their salaries in four months. I hope they can take losses with the same aplomb that they have taken gains. I hate to see PhDs cry. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 08 Dec 1998 09:18:48 -0800 From: David Reid Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Technical stuff: oil service stocks [Connie Mack] I bought NE and VRC last thursday connie. I agree with your opinion on the sector. I bought some to trade and some to hold. David Connie Mack Rea wrote: > Oil service stocks have been nearly demolished. The smell of death and > oil is as nauseating as it is depressing. > > Hard to imagine how oil can go much lower. Now might be a good time to > be presumptuous and take a look at the oil well services. You'll see > some double and triple bottoms, an occasional STO and MACD buy signal, > and an even rarer MF or OBV, but not both. > > You might look at these: > > OII OLOG RIG UTI > > I will try to buy small lots this morning. > > For those who are still investing/trading in MU, AMD, and NOVL, you have > some delicious profits. I am still day/swing trading all three (and no > others). If you have not taken any profits, you ought to consider > letting go of a half or a third of any position. Greed is a lovely > succabus whom no one has ever tamed. > > I have advised my faculty stock group, some of whom have almost doubled > their positions in MU, to let go half of all positions in each of the > three stocks. Bright people are sometimes superlatively greedy. They > are always textbook wise and, therefore, rational--except about the > irrational market. Two in the group have made more than their salaries > in four months. I hope they can take losses with the same aplomb that > they have taken gains. I hate to see PhDs cry. > > Connie Mack > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 08 Dec 1998 10:11:50 -0500 From: Ari Lawson Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Security SW Where can I get a list of the stocks in this group?Thanks Ari dbphoenix wrote: > On my website last Friday, I noted that Security SW was one of the > most rapidly accelerating groups. Two of the three stocks I mentioned > at the time are doing well today, particularly VRSN. For those of you > who are looking for something new, this may be a group worth > investigating. > > --Db > > == > > "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." > > http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ > > _________________________________________________________ > DO YOU YAHOO!? > Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 8 Dec 98 10:08:500 -0500 From: Jeffry White Subject: [CANSLIM] On Sentiment? "In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule." -Friedrich Nietzsche - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 08 Dec 1998 10:42:05 -0500 From: "Craig A. Griffin" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] On Sentiment? At 10:16 AM 12/8/98 -0500, Jeffry wrote: >"In individuals, insanity is rare; but in groups, parties, nations and >epochs, it is the rule." > > -Friedrich Nietzsche Thin reed: retailers here in the Raleigh-Durham area state that they have never seen a Christmas buying spree like this one. Big ticket items are flying off the shelves. Mania's can run beyond all reason. You have to go with the flow, because it can be hard to separate a mania from the market seeing things that you don't. The NASDAQ had a breakout from a huge cup with handle type of formation yesterday. As Tim pointed out, the big cap techs are leading (AOL, YHOO, INTC earlier and now CPQ, MSFT, LU are picking up the pace). With this type of leadership, the market is still showing the green light (bull mode). As Patrick mentioned, you have to participate and use your selling rules from HTMMIS to get out of things that don't work out or which have climax runs. Nearly nothing I have bought on a decent looking breakout lately has threatened my 8% stop (but then I have been buying the leadership mentioned above, mostly, with only a bit of dabbling in the mid-caps and small caps. My earlier post on the distribution day that I judged as a sell signal actually caused me to sell my two weakest holdings. The breakouts that I have bought since then are performing better than those I sold. So net-net, I am about even on those trades (vs. holding straight through), but feel that I am in better stocks than the two I let go (the new ones are acting better). So even the invalid "sell signal" reading (if you can call it that) worked out well. Hopefully the markets will consolidate a bit right around these levels, or just above, before working their way higher. The volatility at the old resistance seems to have been a brief rotation during a decisive period. I am starting to rub my hands a bit (thanks for mentioning that phrase, Johan). So I continue to be worried ... (will this market breakout turn out to be just a fakeout? - who knows, but the leadership acting well relieves my worry a bit for now). Best Regards, Craig PS. Thanks for the thoughtful post on the oils Connie. A contrarian, non-Canslim type of thinking, of course, but well worth consideration for those who also play outside of the CS universe. Interesting, but probably not for me. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 8 Dec 1998 11:42:42 -0500 From: "Joe Scott" Subject: [CANSLIM] Market Watch I know several here enjoy this site, including me.. Clipped from,Steve Harmon's stock report >>>>>Financial News Site: CBS MarketWatch.com Eyes Going Public Don't blink but the ever-evolving and constantly content driven financial news site CBS MarketWatch.com filed to go public at what our analysis shows could be 18x annualized quarterly sales or an estimated 10x 1999 sales. The San Francisco-based outfit employs 40 journalists to varying degrees (fulltime to freelance) to produce daily stock market news and commentary and wants to sell a piece of the operation to the public, some 2.75 million shares at a target $11 per share through underwriters led by BT Alex.Brown. With 11.75 million shares outstanding after the offer, or 13.66 million fully-diluted shares counting options, MarketWatch seeks a $150 million initial market cap. See table at http://www.internetnews.com/stocks/ MarketWatch (the official company name) posted $1.79 million sales and $2.54 million loss for the quarter ending September 30, 1998. The site began as DBC in 1995 and later formed a 50-50 joint venture with CBS for MarketWatch in October, 1997. CBS kicked in ad time on CBS TV and radio networks now through the year 2002 in exchange for its equity position. The ad value was originally set at $50 million then reduced to $30 million. After the IPO, both CBS and DBC will own 38% of MarketWatch.com and effectively control it. In addition, CBS gets a piece of all revenue, 6% to 8% (down from 30%). For October it reported 2.2 million users and 48 million page views and charged a CPM ad rate between $25 and $50, about double what a larger general purpose Web content aggregator may charge. More than 75 firms have advertised on the site including brokerages, financial news sites, and a few consumer goods firms. Four clients made up about half its ad revenue as of year-end 1997. Risks: the usual suspects--heavy competition from portals, financial magazine Web sites, online services, year 2000 unknowns (bugs in computers systems that may occur as a result of the year "2000" being unrecognized by some computer systems), uncertainty of ad market. Rewards: CBS MarketWatch has built a widespread offering of financial content with some top-notch writers and editors. Although the revenues lag its distant kissing cousin, CBS Sportline.com, we think MarketWatch may perform somewhat like Sportsline (NASDAQ:SPLN) in terms of growth and stock movement over time. Finance and sports are amazingly similar content businesses, both stat driven and real-time oriented with huge followings. The real question is if CBS TV and radio can drive people to use MarketWatch, can the 'Eye Network" deliver the eyeballs? Sportsline, for example, saw spikes in its usage following CBS broadcasting the Olympics and promos pointing to Sportsline.com, but traffic waned afterwards. Finance sites have similar spikes around big market swings up or down and some tapering off in between. And $30 million ad time may seem like a lot but in the high-rolling world of TV and radio time it's not. Nearly $6 million has already been spent with years to go on the contract. joe - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 03:55:46 +1100 (EST) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] CLFY is breaking out on 2.5X ADV. Comp SW-Enterprise is one of the groups I've listed as having the highest intermediate-term RS. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 01:29:47 +0800 (SGT) From: dbphoenix Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Security SW <> If you mean the stocks mentioned on the website, go to the Home Page from the link below, then Workshop, then Workshop C. If you mean the entire group, you'd have to go to the IBD Ticker Symbol Guide. Perhaps someone here has a copy and would be willing to provide the list. Or perhaps IBD has done a recent feature and provided a list. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 9 Dec 1998 04:26:23 +1100 (EST) From: dbphoenix Subject: [CANSLIM] Re CLFY and SW Enterprise BOBJY seems to be following suit--1.5X ADV and coming through resistance. - --Db == "Lessons are repeated until they are learned." http://home.talkcity.com/MoneySt/dbphoenix/ _________________________________________________________ DO YOU YAHOO!? Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 08 Dec 1998 13:08:26 -0500 From: Rich Ralph Subject: [CANSLIM] .com Internet stocks This article fits in with our discussion of .com Internet stocks... - ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wrong! Dispatches from the Front: Devastation at the Hands of .com Mania By James J. Cramer 12/7/98 3:32 PM ET =A9 1998 TheStreet.com, All Rights Reserved. Attention, everybody else in the online and off-line media:=20 Will you please focus on how the .com stock business works? No, not the corporate .com business, but the stock-trading aspects. The fundamentals have become so divorced from the stocks that the life cycle (Web page, CNBC tease, CNBC) has become almost comical. Yet no one, not TheStreet.com or The Wall Street Journal or any other publication or service, has done this story.=20 I tried to do it a bit with Wavephore (WAVO:Nasdaq) on CNBC last week, but the consequence for me is that immediately I get referred to the Securities and Exchange Commission even though I have never once traded the darn thing!=20 Someone has to go to one of these day-trading shops and figure out the process by which a Thrustmaster (TMSR:Nasdaq) gets thrust into the multimillion-dollar-cap segment of the market after being a dog for years. (Now all the TMSRers will pillory me. Come get me, wise guys!!) Someone has to show the havoc and destruction this whole mania is causing to the traditional players in Nasdaq, all of whom have since stopped making money.=20 Someone has to elaborate on the game that is being played, explain it to us -- heck, even go undercover as a day trader. This phenomenon is the most important sea change that has occurred in the market in years, yet nobody is covering it.=20 =20 Best regards, Rich Ralph - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 08 Dec 1998 13:11:21 -0500 From: Connie Mack Rea Subject: [CANSLIM] Correction of general ignorance. {Connie Mack} I wrote "succabus." I do know better. "Succubus." Sorry. Connie Mack - - ------------------------------ Date: 8 Dec 1998 23:09:12 -0300 From: Krukever Subject: [CANSLIM] M The secret is to indentify the market turns. It isn=B4t easy to find the moment for Best Buy like you said. You cannot buy at the very bottom of the market because at that point you don=B4t have a turnaround signal until it makes it first up move.- Good trading, Diego Krukever.- =20 - -----Original Message----- From: "Peter Newell" DIEGO KRUKEVER, One thing O'neill advocates is to doing your own homework, you may find ways that fit your style better. I like to look at the best stocks from each run and analyze them. And in doing this I have found that picking a real good stock with good and improving fundamentals usually be bought when the market turns, one example Best Buy, went from 35 to 58. Peter Newell - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #468 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.