From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #495 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, January 8 1999 Volume 02 : Number 495 In this issue: [CANSLIM] Another Second Chance Buy Example [CANSLIM] M Re: [CANSLIM] M - Charlie [CANSLIM] Current M Re: [CANSLIM] Little Green Men Re: [CANSLIM] Current M Re: [CANSLIM] Current M RE: [CANSLIM] M - Charlie [CANSLIM] little green men [CANSLIM] RCGI [CANSLIM] Volume RE: [CANSLIM] RCGI Re: [CANSLIM] little green men Re: [CANSLIM] little green men [none] RE: [CANSLIM] RCGI Re: [CANSLIM] Volume Re: [CANSLIM] RCGI [CANSLIM] little green men Re: [CANSLIM] little green men RE: [CANSLIM] Volume [CANSLIM] importing list [CANSLIM] off topic, non-CANSLIM, YHOO, ZD and Softbank [CANSLIM] off-topic, YHOO, ZD and Softbank Re: [CANSLIM] M - Charlie ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1999 08:48:36 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: [CANSLIM] Another Second Chance Buy Example Another second chance buy example: AAPL gave a second chance buy on the pullback on Weds (it ran counter to the market that day, bigtime). Then relaunched yesterday. It had a much riskier look to it than SEEK in our discussions yesterday because in one day it retraced all the way to the top of the base. Then when it recovered yesterday, the second chance buy signal was at 42 3/8's. I love it when they do this and recover because it makes the stock look great on a weekly chart. The retracement day gets masked out (as it should) and all you see is the strong spike up with big volume. The retracement day's volume simply contributes to the weeks big up volume. When you think about it all of the brave souls buying that big volume as it pulled back turned out to be 1) right so far, and 2) strong holders of the stock (vs weak holders) and thus, on that day, even though it was a down day, the stock was moving into strong hands. If something was wrong the stock would have continued to pullback well into its base and they would have all been going "oh, no!". But, if it was just a shakeout, the action on Thursday is one of several possible results (another is a dribbling few days along the top of the base before moving back up). Thursday's recovery on equally big volume is the best possible response, of course. Once again, the stock was moving counter to the market most of the day Thursday. AAPL is a turnaround in more ways than one ;^). - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1999 09:46:53 -0500 From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] M I am trying to get back into the market. My stock picking prowess leaves me 100% in cash while all of my great picks that I was stopped out of are out of the blue and into the black. OK so if you dont use CANSLIM principles on the way in your stops cant be CANSLIM either. Got that one figured out at last. I would love to buy ATT (T) today it took off two points at the open. I also like MSFT. Only up one. I dont want to buy when the market first opens according to some reading I have been doing it is best to let the day settle in. We will see how that works today. Charlie - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1999 10:22:21 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Charlie Charlie, If you are buying these stocks, NON-Canslim, so to speak. You need very clear goals / purpose in your head. Is this a long term, no matter what hold? In which case - stuff them in a mattress and check on them in 5 years? Is this daytrading, but you haven't told yourself yet? - very dangerous if that is the case. Is this a vague, I'll participate, make some money and then we'll see? If so, odds are you will not make money, quite the reverse. Many stocks are extended now. Monday could as easily advance another percent or two as pullback a percent or two. If it pulls back a percent or two, what you buy today could pullback 5%. Don't be in too much of a rush. Missed profits are better than losses. There are more breakouts happening daily (for example MSPG, AAPL, and many others broke out in the last 2 or 3 days). Buy the breakouts and stick with Canslim /OR/ put your money in a mutual fund and keep out 10% to practice Canslim with. Your problem is not that there are no breakouts left, there will be many many more over the coming days and weeks if the market continues up. Your problem is finding the good bases and catching them in a timely fashion (on the breakout day or on a pullback bounce). Learn to find the bases. Someone else asked me about this recently. I do not have a formal system for doing it. I keep a watchlist of about 200 good candidates selected from RS / EPS rankings, or things that I have read about the company, and other sources and go from there. It is a long laborious process that I need to improve on. Here are some methods that work: 1) (Hard work) Look at Friday's IBD and each week keep all of the symbols from "Your Weekend Review" in a list. That is the 150 to 200 stocks you should probably be interested in. Then review all of those charts each weekend (flip through with Quotes Plus or TC2000 - the web is probably too slow). Ignore all the extended stocks and just keep a list of the stocks with the best bases (try to limit your list to say 30 candidates). Of those 30, look up the CANSLI fundamentals and choose the really best 10 or 15. Then watch those 10 or 15 for a breakout that week. Next weekend, do the same thing. Throw out some of the 10 or 15 that broke out or broke down or which just are not as fundamentally good as the new list you get the next week. After a week or two you will have 25 to 30 stocks that you have researched well and would like to own. Then you just have to watch them for breakouts. Most of the stocks will repeat in the Friday review each week, only 5%-20% will be replaced each week. That simplifies your list making. You just have to compare last weeks list to the new list in the newspaper and throw out the dropped issues and add in the new ones. Time consuming, yes, maybe 2-4 hours each weekend, just to review the list and another 2 hours to look up the best stocks out of your list. 2) (Excellent/Easy) Here is a simpler way to get candidates. It will not be exactly the same list, but it is just as good: subscribe to Ron Russell's weekly email of Canslim stocks (the number of stocks that pass his filters rise and fall each week based on market action - but you usually will have about 200 candidates to look through - and no typing - he updates it for you - no charge. ) And the spreadsheet he sends contains all kinds of cool fundamental data. I am a long time subscriber (did I mention it is free). THANK YOU RON! Then do the same with Ron's list. Go through looking for good bases with QP or TC2000 or any stock database/charting package (they all will accept lists of stock symbols as input and you can simply page through them, clickly click, same as in #1, just no typing of symbols required to build the list). 3) Use a scan/charting program such as TC2000 or QP2 or WOW. There is a public domain scan for QP2, for example, that will roughly reproduce the Friday list from IBD by scanning the QP2 database. You could do this every night if you wanted to and page through the 200 or so stocks output looking at bases (clicky clik). Or just do like above, look through each weekend, and build a 10-25 stock watchlist. Simple. 4) Use DG separately or in conjunction with all of the above. Tom Worley does this along with several others on the list and maybe they will speak to their methodology. I am a sometimes (monthly) subscriber to the paper copy of the NASDAQ and use it to look up fundamental data and to scan for bases (occassionally). Others use the DG Online as thier everything. Prices vary, but the cheapist system for time and money is probably either QP2 or TC2000 at about $17 monthly (which includes a charting package and scan capability), perhaps combined with Ron Russell's list. You can buy IBD weekly on the newsstand and just get Friday's paper or go to the library if you want to add that element cheaply. You can try DG Online for $60 for one month (it is cheaper by the year). You can try the print DG weekly for 5 weeks for about $40. Finding and buying one good breakout at the right time will pay for any of these subscriptions. But the important thing is to build a system that works for you. And don't go overboard with data sources. Any one of these will work just fine. You will never catch all of the best breakouts. But just catching a few each year properly is all you need. Get with the program. Hope this helps. Best Regards, Craig At 09:46 AM 1/8/99 -0500, you wrote: > > I am trying to get back into the market. My stock picking prowess leaves me >100% in cash while all of my great picks that I was stopped out of are out >of the blue and into the black. OK so if you dont use CANSLIM principles on >the way in your stops cant be CANSLIM either. Got that one figured out at >last. > I would love to buy ATT (T) today it took off two points at the open. I >also like MSFT. Only up one. I dont want to buy when the market first opens >according to some reading I have been doing it is best to let the day settle >in. We will see how that works today. > >Charlie > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1999 10:24:45 -0500 From: Jerry Hickman Subject: [CANSLIM] Current M Hi all, The current state of M is, at least, confusing to me. Some of the negatives I see is: according to IBD, the bullish Advisor Sentiment is at a new high (contrarian, therefore bearish), and the Adv/Dec line has been essentially flat since early last November, even with an uptrending S&P, DJIA, and NASDAQ. What does that say for the "broader market"? Some others--the VIX is inching back up, the ABCDE numbers posted here on this list are slowly eroding. I don't want to sound like I am screaming "the sky is falling" but would be interested in what others are seeing in these indicators. Jerry Hickman Midland, MI - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1999 15:27:32 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Little Green Men On Thu, 7 Jan 1999 19:31:22 -0800, you wrote: :From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) :To: canslim@lists.xmission.com : :> :If you doubt this, I heard that there's an article in IBD stating = that :> :the best way to make money in this market is to buy HTFs. :> : :> :Enough said. :> : :> :--Db :>=20 :>=20 :> Umm, not quite "enough", Db. What's HTF's? : :High Tight Flags, I'm guessing. : Yeah, that finally came to me...=20 - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1999 10:48:44 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Current M Jerry, I don't know. But all of the issues you point out are certainly concerns. This market not only is powerful, it is also frothy (Turkeys are flying, and people are jumping on anything that moves and says ".com"). Lots of stocks have advanced 35% in 3 or 4 days. It seems nuts and we are overdue a consolidation at least. But, the DJIA, S&P500, and NASDAQ have positive chart patterns and the new/high low ratio continues to improve, and many, if not most breakouts are working. So, my theory: the green light is on for now (could change any day). Ride breakouts as always when in "bull mode". Keep a wary eye out for distribution days and other signs of a top. Even as the DJIA was breaking out, I saw two toppy signs in the NASDAQ: 1) gap up two days ago - looked like the top of a climax run to me, 2) big distribution type of day yesterday, but not exactly. Today looks like it may be another and more definite distribution day followed by some backing and filling over the next week or two. (We gapped up about 40 pts- 2% - on the NASDAQ today and here we are at 10:30, only up 12 pts). But one never knows - it could still end up 2% for today. One day at the time. I will continue to buy nice looking breakouts as cash permits (so not right now), until we get a couple more days of distribution at least, or until the breakouts start failing on me. My point in the earlier post about the "powerful" M was not that every day will be up or that we are not (over)-due a consolidation. Only that, I would be very surprised if we had a major correction here. I would expect the cup w/handle bases that the indexes have formed to offer support at the top of the base or slightly below it. A pullback of 5-8% in rapid fashion would be no surprise at any time. A retracing of the years gains would probably work to scare out a lot of folks and hurt plenty of Johnie Come Lately's. And the market does work overtime to hurt you, unfortunately. Best Regards, Craig At 10:24 AM 1/8/99 -0500, you wrote: >Hi all, > >The current state of M is, at least, confusing to me. Some of the >negatives I see is: according to IBD, the bullish Advisor Sentiment is at >a new high (contrarian, therefore bearish), and the Adv/Dec line has been >essentially flat since early last November, even with an uptrending S&P, >DJIA, and NASDAQ. What does that say for the "broader market"? > >Some others--the VIX is inching back up, the ABCDE numbers posted here on >this list are slowly eroding. > >I don't want to sound like I am screaming "the sky is falling" but would be >interested in what others are seeing in these indicators. > >Jerry Hickman >Midland, MI > > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1999 16:31:52 GMT From: musicant@autobahn.org (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Current M On Fri, 08 Jan 1999 10:24:45 -0500, you wrote: :Hi all, : :The current state of M is, at least, confusing to me. Some of the :negatives I see is: according to IBD, the bullish Advisor Sentiment is = at :a new high (contrarian, therefore bearish), and the Adv/Dec line has = been :essentially flat since early last November, even with an uptrending S&P, :DJIA, and NASDAQ. What does that say for the "broader market"? : :Some others--the VIX is inching back up, the ABCDE numbers posted here = on :this list are slowly eroding. : :I don't want to sound like I am screaming "the sky is falling" but would= be :interested in what others are seeing in these indicators. : :Jerry Hickman :Midland, MI Given the way things have been going my feeling is that the VIX is not going to go where you would like to see it for CANSLIM techniques to be most effective, in the parlance of Tom Worley. I think you will see it hanging around 25. That's my guess. However, they say that a good January means a good year 90% of the time. So far Jan. has been a boomer, and I don't expect that to deteriorate. The sky is not falling. Dan - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1999 11:59:03 -0500 From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M - Charlie Craig, Thank you for the reply, its another print out for me. As always you are on the money. Charlie > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Craig Griffin > Sent: Friday, January 08, 1999 10:22 AM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Charlie > > > Charlie, > > If you are buying these stocks, NON-Canslim, so to speak. You need very > clear goals / purpose in your head. Is this a long term, no matter what > hold? In which case - stuff them in a mattress and check on them in 5 > years? Is this daytrading, but you haven't told yourself yet? - very > dangerous if that is the case. Is this a vague, I'll participate, make > some money and then we'll see? If so, odds are you will not make money, > quite the reverse. Many stocks are extended now. Monday could as easily > advance another percent or two as pullback a percent or two. If it pulls > back a percent or two, what you buy today could pullback 5%. Don't be in > too much of a rush. Missed profits are better than losses. > > There are more breakouts happening daily (for example MSPG, AAPL, and many > others broke out in the last 2 or 3 days). Buy the breakouts and stick > with Canslim /OR/ put your money in a mutual fund and keep out 10% to > practice Canslim with. Your problem is not that there are no breakouts > left, there will be many many more over the coming days and weeks if the > market continues up. Your problem is finding the good bases and catching > them in a timely fashion (on the breakout day or on a pullback bounce). > > Learn to find the bases. Someone else asked me about this recently. I do > not have a formal system for doing it. I keep a watchlist of about 200 > good candidates selected from RS / EPS rankings, or things that I have > read about the company, and other sources and go from there. It is a long > laborious process that I need to improve on. > > Here are some methods that work: > > 1) (Hard work) Look at Friday's IBD and each week keep all of the symbols > from "Your Weekend Review" in a list. That is the 150 to 200 stocks you > should probably be interested in. Then review all of those charts each > weekend (flip through with Quotes Plus or TC2000 - the web is probably too > slow). Ignore all the extended stocks and just keep a list of the stocks > with the best bases (try to limit your list to say 30 candidates). Of > those 30, look up the CANSLI fundamentals and choose the really best 10 or > 15. Then watch those 10 or 15 for a breakout that week. Next weekend, do > the same thing. Throw out some of the 10 or 15 that broke out or broke > down or which just are not as fundamentally good as the new list you get > the next week. After a week or two you will have 25 to 30 stocks that you > have researched well and would like to own. Then you just have to watch > them for breakouts. Most of the stocks will repeat in the Friday review > each week, only 5%-20% will be replaced each week. That simplifies your > list making. You just have to compare last weeks list to the new list in > the newspaper and throw out the dropped issues and add in the new ones. > Time consuming, yes, maybe 2-4 hours each weekend, just to review the list > and another 2 hours to look up the best stocks out of your list. > > 2) (Excellent/Easy) Here is a simpler way to get candidates. It will not > be exactly the same list, but it is just as good: subscribe to Ron > Russell's weekly email of Canslim stocks (the number of stocks that pass > his filters rise and fall each week based on market action - but you > usually will have about 200 candidates to look through - and no > typing - he > updates it for you - no charge. ) And the spreadsheet he sends contains > all kinds of cool fundamental data. I am a long time subscriber (did I > mention it is free). THANK YOU RON! Then do the same with Ron's > list. Go > through looking for good bases with QP or TC2000 or any stock > database/charting package (they all will accept lists of stock symbols as > input and you can simply page through them, clickly click, same as in #1, > just no typing of symbols required to build the list). > > 3) Use a scan/charting program such as TC2000 or QP2 or WOW. There is a > public domain scan for QP2, for example, that will roughly reproduce the > Friday list from IBD by scanning the QP2 database. You could do > this every > night if you wanted to and page through the 200 or so stocks > output looking > at bases (clicky clik). Or just do like above, look through each weekend, > and build a 10-25 stock watchlist. Simple. > > 4) Use DG separately or in conjunction with all of the above. Tom Worley > does this along with several others on the list and maybe they will speak > to their methodology. I am a sometimes (monthly) subscriber to the paper > copy of the NASDAQ and use it to look up fundamental data and to scan for > bases (occassionally). Others use the DG Online as thier everything. > > Prices vary, but the cheapist system for time and money is probably either > QP2 or TC2000 at about $17 monthly (which includes a charting package and > scan capability), perhaps combined with Ron Russell's list. You can buy > IBD weekly on the newsstand and just get Friday's paper or go to the > library if you want to add that element cheaply. You can try DG > Online for > $60 for one month (it is cheaper by the year). You can try the print DG > weekly for 5 weeks for about $40. > > Finding and buying one good breakout at the right time will pay for any of > these subscriptions. But the important thing is to build a system that > works for you. And don't go overboard with data sources. Any > one of these > will work just fine. You will never catch all of the best breakouts. But > just catching a few each year properly is all you need. > > Get with the program. > > Hope this helps. > > Best Regards, > Craig > > At 09:46 AM 1/8/99 -0500, you wrote: > > > > I am trying to get back into the market. My stock picking > prowess leaves me > >100% in cash while all of my great picks that I was stopped out > of are out > >of the blue and into the black. OK so if you dont use CANSLIM > principles on > >the way in your stops cant be CANSLIM either. Got that one figured out at > >last. > > I would love to buy ATT (T) today it took off two points at > the open. I > >also like MSFT. Only up one. I dont want to buy when the market > first opens > >according to some reading I have been doing it is best to let > the day settle > >in. We will see how that works today. > > > >Charlie > > > > > >- > > > > > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1999 11:34:46 -0700 From: "Joe J." Subject: [CANSLIM] little green men [CANSLIM] Little Green Men Excellent post Db. I think this speaks right to the concerns Tom W. about sticking with "pure" canslim. Just look at WON's comments in his book about investing in smaller float stocks so you can get more bang for you're buck. About a year ago I heard him comment to someone questioning him about his investment in Pfizer. He indicated that with the size of institutional investors today they could move even a large cap company significantly - thus implying that perhaps float wasn't so important after all. Maybe this also implies that current institutional ownership is also not that important - they can always buy more right? Thus, over time I realized that even WON changes and evolves with changing conditions. Heck, I bet he even owns a few shares in AOL and AMZN right now! If we can learn anything from this, it should be that we need to also change and evolve over time. No, the internets don't meet pure CANSLIM but so what? Wasn't the whole purpose and goal of WON's quest to find "tomorrow's big winners"? If you recognize the risk, buy off a proper chart formation (i.e., a base) and set a stop to limit your risk why shouldn't you be part of this tulip/non-tulip mania? Did WON's system catch DELL at the beginning of its move? If not, why not? Can you learn something from this? Maybe trailing earnings growth is just not working in today's market conditions as well as it did in the days when WON developed his system? Should we be looking more at revenue growth instead? Or, should the RS become more heavily weighted in our analysis? The exact term escapes me right now, but for those of you who read books on Technical Analysis or even the magazine Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, you may recall hearing that when developing a trading/investing system that it should be able to still work as market conditions change (meaning that the system is dynamic). Is pure CANSLIM, the way WON wrote about it so many years ago, still working in today's conditions? Wasn't the whole idea behind CANSLIM to find the DELL's and the AOL's and the AMZN's early on? There are those (mostly Tom W.) who are very concerned that newbies won't be able to figure out what is and what isn't CS if we keep discussing "other methods" that may or may not help improve our results. My personal opinion on that is that this is not just a list for newbies this is a list for experienced traders and investors who are already familiar with WON's concepts. If you are a newbie and you are just trading based on some comments made by myself or anyone else without fully understanding what you are doing, you deserve exactly what you end up with. I just don't think people are that naive myself! Thus, I propose that we use this list to attempt to "rebuild" CS to allow it to work in today's conditions. Let's find a version of CS that allows us to trade "today's big winners". Therefore, keep the posts coming on the trading of SEEK, interpreting the proper base, pivot points, etc. I think it is all valid and it belongs on this list! Good trading, Joe J. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1999 12:47:56 -0700 From: PWahl@sysinn.com Subject: [CANSLIM] RCGI RCGI seems to be breaking out on heavy volume. Any comments on this one? - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1999 14:44:11 -0500 From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: [CANSLIM] Volume I have been looking at various stocks today. Two things struck me. First ATT (T). Massive volume and its up. This would indicate, I guess, a lot of people are interested in the stock. Though it is not clear if there is a lot of selling into it going on. Then there is AOL, half the normal volume and it is just floating around, if fact the bears are slightly ahead right not. Is this what is considered distribution into the stock. Charlie - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1999 15:03:03 -0500 From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] RCGI Hi, The volume, as you indicated is up there almost 3x's normal. It appears to have be in a trading range for a while, OTOH, 30 looks like resistance and it is about through that. Fundies look OK 95 75 BAB in IBD. If you get a chance look at QTRN. It has been doing the same thing forever. If I had more nerve and more money I would sell it short at 52 cover at 42 buy it long at 42 and sell it again at 52. Charlie > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of PWahl@sysinn.com > Sent: Friday, January 08, 1999 2:48 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: [CANSLIM] RCGI > > > RCGI seems to be breaking out on heavy volume. Any comments on this > one? > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1999 21:10:06 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] little green men Joe wrote: >Let's find a version of CS that >allows us to trade "today's big winners". I currently think that you have to adapt to what the market is telling you. Currently is (or was) - - dot.com and anything else even slightly related with the internet - - big cap gorilla's - - momentum trading Some rules however almost always apply IMHO. To name a few: - - 'M' market. What is it doing? Most important. - - Buy only from proper bases (for your major buys anyway). - - Practice strict money management. Limit your losses and hold your winners. (I have to learn this myself. Example: I was going to hold PFE for years, but sold a few days ago, when my very short term trader 'self' said sell now.) - - Buy companies that have at least a few CANSLIM characteristics like 'being a leader' in a strong group, new product, new service or whatever else new. Anyway, I agree with Craig and others that this is sheer madness, but I love it. When I looked at LCOS this morning I reset my RT quote program 2 times to see if it wasn't decieving me. Up 28% in less than a trading day. Not like BCST but good enough for me. FWIW I'm 90% cash now. As Forest Gump would say "For no particular reason". Have to let the excitement wear off during the weekend. Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1999 14:09:43 -0600 From: DS Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] little green men Hi Joe, Excellent post! I believe you nailed it.....CS must be adaptive in order to remain the method of finding big winners. Most of the time "S" matters but at times when a large cap stock like DELL or CPWR or WLA or PFE hits an incredible earnings stream massive fund flows allow them to act like they have a small float. They end up having a small float RELATIVE to the demand. MOST of the time earnings are essential for CS but sometimes "N" is more important. This, of course, is the case with the internet and was the case with AMGN and biotech in the early 90's. Most of the time a new high breakout is a must but when a stock forms a nice base 20-30 % off its all time high the breakout is not a new high. MOST the time annual earnings are a must but when you have a stock ramping up its current earnings so fast that they are accelerating 30-50 % quarter over quarter (ASND and USRX et al. in 1995) is it not a CS stock?? CS is vague and will remain so because there is a large subjective component in finding huge winners before everyone else does. All of the more experience CS'ers here have learned the subjectivity the hard way and no amount of pigeon holing CS will change that for the newbies. Ok, my rant is over! Great post Joe. DCSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: From: Subject: [none] Remember that if you buy correctly, you are greatly reducing your risk. So although the market may have advanced a bunch, you will be buying a stock that is just emerging from a base, that is, not extended in spite of the market advance. That said, after the runup of the last few days, I think I will be a bit wary of buying breakouts until we have at least a few lower volatility days. You are right about mid-cap vs. large cap. Just look at the Russell 2K, still 14% (? I think) off its old highs, while the Dow and S&P are at all time highs. > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1999 13:29:28 -0700 From: PWahl@sysinn.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] RCGI > -----Original Message----- > From: Charles Cangialosi [SMTP:chcng@worldnet.att.net] > Sent: Friday, January 08, 1999 1:03 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] RCGI > > Hi, > The volume, as you indicated is up there almost 3x's normal. It > appears to > have be in a trading range for a while, OTOH, 30 looks like resistance > and > it is about through that. Fundies look OK 95 75 BAB in IBD. > If you get a chance look at QTRN. It has been doing the same thing > forever. > [Wahl, Patrick] RS under 80 was the only negative I could see, plus a possibly overbought market. I day or two of upward movement in RCGI would get that RS up there though. - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1999 14:52:34 -0600 From: DS Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Volume >>Then there is AOL, half the normal volume and it is just floating around, if fact the bears are slightly ahead right not. Is this what is considered distribution into the stock.<< Hi Charlie, I would not consider this distribution. This stock is trying to hold a High Tight Flag.....a very bullish patterm. My read on the volume situation is convictionless selling. What you have (IMO) is institutional buyers on the bid slowly taking stock from the weak holders that are scared of losing thier profits as the stock bounces around. This is farily heathly action for a stock that has moved so far. Another thing that hints at consolidation is the realatively small range the stock has traded in and that it has held yesterdays low. In order for this to be distribution I would want to see very heavy volume with a "high tail" day and the close lower or the same as the open. This would show that the stock ran higher after the open and then could not hold the high prices as the bears took over. Keep in mind that this stock is trending very stongly. That being said I wouldn't buy AOL until it proves itself buy trading above 153 on heavy volume. With the looks of the internets today (blow-off top likely) that might not happen. Good Luck, DSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1999 12:08:09 -0800 From: "dave" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] RCGI > RCGI seems to be breaking out on heavy volume. Any comments on this > one? Fundamentals seem good, except very high institutional ownership. Technically, I don't know what to think. RCGI gapped down after last earnings report, which beat estimates, and has traded pretty much sideways since then. I bought on Monday (1/4/99) on what I thought was a breakout. I hope todays breakout is for real. Dave Farthing Gordian Design Services Wanna be blacklisted by our spam filter? mailto: aablme@gordian.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1999 15:06:14 -0600 From: DS Subject: [CANSLIM] little green men Hi Joe, Excellent post! I believe you nailed it.....CS must be adaptive in order to remain the method of finding big winners. Most of the time "S" matters but at times when a large cap stock like DELL or CPWR or WLA or PFE hits an incredible earnings stream massive fund flows allow them to act like they have a small float. They end up having a small float RELATIVE to the demand. MOST of the time earnings are essential for CS but sometimes "N" is more important. This, of course, is the case with the internet and was the case with AMGN and biotech in the early 90's. Most of the time a new high breakout is a must but when a stock forms a nice base 20-30 % off its all time high the breakout is not a new high. MOST the time annual earnings are a must but when you have a stock ramping up its current earnings so fast that they are accelerating 30-50 % quarter over quarter (ASND and USRX et al. in 1995) is it not a CS stock?? CS is vague and will remain so because there is a large subjective component in finding huge winners before everyone else does. All of the more experience CS'ers here have learned the subjectivity the hard way and no amount of pigeon holing CS will change that for the newbies. Ok, my rant is over! Great post Joe. DCSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 08 Jan 1999 14:09:43 -0600 From: DS Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] little green men Hi Joe, Excellent post! I believe you nailed it.....CS must be adaptive in order to remain the method of finding big winners. Most of the time "S" matters but at times when a large cap stock like DELL or CPWR or WLA or PFE hits an incredible earnings stream massive fund flows allow them to act like they have a small float. They end up having a small float RELATIVE to the demand. MOST of the time earnings are essential for CS but sometimes "N" is more important. This, of course, is the case with the internet and was the case with AMGN and biotech in the early 90's. Most of the time a new high breakout is a must but when a stock forms a nice base 20-30 % off its all time high the breakout is not a new high. MOST the time annual earnings are a must but when you have a stock ramping up its current earnings so fast that they are accelerating 30-50 % quarter over quarter (ASND and USRX et al. in 1995) is it not a CS stock?? CS is vague and will remain so because there is a large subjective component in finding huge winners before everyone else does. All of the more experience CS'ers here have learned the subjectivity the hard way and no amount of pigeon holing CS will change that for the newbies. Ok, my rant is over! Great post Joe. DCSquires - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1999 16:24:48 -0500 From: "Charles Cangialosi" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Volume I almost bought it and I almost bought ATT but I held off because I felt rushed and wanted to look things over on the weekend. Charlie PS Car was broke today so I was stuck at the computer. > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of DS > Sent: Friday, January 08, 1999 3:53 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Volume > > > >>Then there is AOL, half the normal volume and it is just > floating around, if > fact the bears are slightly ahead right not. Is this what is considered > distribution into the stock.<< > > Hi Charlie, > > I would not consider this distribution. This stock is trying to hold a > High Tight Flag.....a very bullish patterm. My read on the volume > situation is convictionless selling. What you have (IMO) is > institutional buyers on the bid slowly taking stock from the weak > holders that are scared of losing thier profits as the stock bounces > around. This is farily heathly action for a stock that has moved so far. > Another thing that hints at consolidation is the realatively small range > the stock has traded in and that it has held yesterdays low. In order > for this to be distribution I would want to see very heavy volume with a > "high tail" day and the close lower or the same as the open. This would > show that the stock ran higher after the open and then could not hold > the high prices as the bears took over. Keep in mind that this stock is > trending very stongly. That being said I wouldn't buy AOL until it > proves itself buy trading above 153 on heavy volume. With the looks of > the internets today (blow-off top likely) that might not happen. > > Good Luck, > DSquires > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1999 14:35:14 -0800 From: "M Sims" Subject: [CANSLIM] importing list I could use a little help if someone would please... I have WOW ver7 and I am trying to import Mr. Russell's list of stocks into my quote list. I have saved the list to excel then saved it as a csv file. Now I go to wow bring up a blank quote list and go to securities to import the file. When I select the file it tells me "unable to interpret" What might I be doing wrong? Thanks for any help... Mike - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1999 17:40:22 -0600 From: "Ricardo Bekin" Subject: [CANSLIM] off topic, non-CANSLIM, YHOO, ZD and Softbank For anyone thinking about buying internut stocks, a very sobering piece! http://www.thestreet.com/comment/keyhole/597589.html JAFO Ricardo - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 8 Jan 1999 17:51:43 -0600 From: "Ricardo Bekin" Subject: [CANSLIM] off-topic, YHOO, ZD and Softbank If you are unable to read the story at TheStreet.com, it is also available at http://www.observer.com/ under "Business & Real Estate" Ricardo - - ------------------------------ Date: Sat, 9 Jan 1999 00:13:22 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Charlie Charlie, Craig already made the point that I was going to make, both T and MSFT have great, and I mean GREAT, CANSLIM elements. But what they BOTH lack is a good base for setting up a breakout. That aspect (a base leading to a breakout) is a fundamental part of CANSLIM as developed by WON. Of course, neither meet the criteria for "S" or "I" in CANSLIM either, but WON has been wobbling on that for the past several years. CANSLIM is not only about finding the stocks with high RS and/or high EPS, it's also about timing your entry, and for that you must study charts. Craig is correct, I am lost without Daily Graphs. Have had the paper books for many years now, along with many other WON pubs and sources. Grew addicted to DGO (Daily Graphs Online) while it was in beta, and loved it because it gives me a basic CANSLIM chart of every stock, not just those in the books. Excellent resource if the cost works for you. After changing jobs (read it as being fired before I could quit, still best thing ever happened to me), I lost the paper version, but continued online even after I had to start paying. Without the ability to understand charts, I seriously doubt I could make money with CANSLIM. I do also use BigCharts for technical analysis, which I added to my "skills" portfolio in the past year or so. But my starting point always remains CANSLIM elements as I see them at DGO. I only use BigCharts for helping time my entry, exit and hold decisions. I manually screen stocks hitting new highs, as well as constantly reviewing those stocks I have already added to my "watch list" looking first at their CS elements, then using BigCharts at their technical aspects. Tom W stkguru@netside.net ICQ # 5568838 - -----Original Message----- From: Craig Griffin To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Date: Friday, January 08, 1999 10:23 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M - Charlie 4) Use DG separately or in conjunction with all of the above. Tom Worley does this along with several others on the list and maybe they will speak to their methodology. I am a sometimes (monthly) subscriber to the paper copy of the NASDAQ and use it to look up fundamental data and to scan for bases (occassionally). Others use the DG Online as thier everything. - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #495 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.