From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #801 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, January 21 2000 Volume 02 : Number 801 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Article about WON Re: [CANSLIM] IBD's re-interpretation of selling rules RE: [CANSLIM] Chasing [CANSLIM]1999 Results Re: [CANSLIM]1999 Results Re: [CANSLIM] Chasing [CANSLIM] Small caps Re: [CANSLIM]1999 Results [CANSLIM] LGTO Re: [CANSLIM]1999 Results [CANSLIM] Wow! Can you say "Pump & Dump"? [CANSLIM] NITE Re: [CANSLIM] NITE Re: [CANSLIM] NITE Re: [CANSLIM] NITE Re: [CANSLIM] NITE Re: [CANSLIM]1999 Results and some good news ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2000 19:15:23 -0800 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Article about WON Tim, I was just going to pick it up last week and low and behold - IBD sent it to me as gift! : ) It's a great easy reading book to reinforce HTMMIS. - -Bill Triffet - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tim Fisher To: Sent: Wednesday, January 19, 2000 9:59 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Article about WON > "24 Essential Lessons for Investment Success" O'Neil's advice worth > accumulating > > By Thom Calandra, CBS MarketWatch Last Update: 11:03 AM ET Jan 19, 2000 > FTMarketWatch.com Thom's biography > > > SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- William J. O'Neil, the stock chartist and > financial newspaper publisher, has a new book. > > In it O'Neil, best known as founder of Investor's Business Daily, sticks > with a system of sticking with winning companies. For individuals, "24 > Essential Lessons for Investment Success" {McGraw-Hill) is a gem, one of > those how-to books... > > > Tim Fisher > Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites > > Tim@OreRockOn.com > WWW: http://OreRockOn.com > See naked fish and rocks! > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2000 00:28:16 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD's re-interpretation of selling rules Hi Tim, I didn't get the sense that the article in any way suggested holding in the face of actual bad news, esp news that impaired the fundies. Rather, my understanding was that it was discouraging short term trading on stocks that "moved too fast" upward. I think the key the article was hitting on is that even an experienced investor is often fooled into thinking a stock that moves up quickly has hit a short or intermediate term high. If the investor likes it long term, the temptation is to sell out and try to buy it back later at a cheaper price. But too often, it it then simply keeps on going up, you don't want to chase it even if that later proves to have been the right decision. It's easy to take a quick 20% gain, but doesn't wear so well if three months later you would have been up 300 or 400 percent instead. If I have a stock that has made a quick move up, I don't mind holding it well past a 15% decline (so long as I bot it for a long term hold), but do have a problem holding it if it even threatens to return to my buy point. That's when I start regreting not having already sold it. I accept as a matter of the nature of the stock market, and the whim of the stock gods, that a stock that gets overextended will correct at some point. I also accept, if as nothing else than a sacrifice to those same stock gods, giving up part of a sudden and explosive paper profit. I just don't like giving it all back, that's no fun and makes me feel real stupid. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - -----Original Message----- From: Tim Fisher To: canslim@mail.xmission.com Date: Wednesday, January 19, 2000 10:09 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD's re-interpretation of selling rules Sorry I deleted your analysis of the article Tom, but I have to agree that I am worried that a 20% gain can now turn into an 8% loss and that is OK by WON. I think that is a bad idea, especially for one who doesn't live and breathe CANSLIM. I also disagree in general with the original 8-week rule, and the additional 8-week rule (suggestion?). If a company doesn't do anything significant, then hold it. I.e. the price drifts down in orderly fashion because of disinterest. If there is bad news, why tie up all that capital in a loser? You can find plenty of awesome charts that fall off the edge of a cliff because of decelerating earnings, accounting irregularities, unfavorable buyouts, bad press, etc. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2000 22:10:48 -0800 From: "mikelu" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Chasing I wouldn't want to buy below the pivot, but it would be less risky to buy the pullback towards the pivot, wouldn't it? I have been buying 20-day breakouts rather than CANSLIM breakouts, but my system testing shows it's more profitable and less risky to buy using a (2-day) trailing stop on the pullback following the breakout. Mike - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Fisher Sent: Wednesday, January 19, 2000 9:57 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Chasing ... Another riskier strategy is to wait until they fall back into the base and buy then. I did so week before last and of 5 buys only BVSN has failed to come back 20% above my buy point. ... - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2000 08:30:16 -0500 (EST) From: chris dempsey Subject: [CANSLIM]1999 Results I opened an account in March with 20K and made my first purchase on March 29th. I finally made the time to put the following results together. 10/31/99 $24904 closing value prior to stampede 12/21/99 $50512 highest closing value 12/31/99 $49,141.38 year end value 145.7% increase 11/17/99 $32041 largest margin debt and also the day I had the most positions 30 Withdrew $28697 at the end of the year so I am starting 2000 with $20444 173 closing stock trades 5 put options sold 109 positive trades with average gain of 18.67% 64 negative trades with average loss of 8.47% 13 were double digits 5 put trades - loss of $105 (4 positive 1 negative) interest $114.56 margin interest $119.88 dividend $1.70 All purchases made were in the $2000 range. Most shares purchased 85 RMDY. Least shares purchased 8 JDSU - NSOL - YHOO The following stocks were sold above the listed percents 150 AMTD 120 ACTU 110 NSOL MSTR 100 TMPW 70 YHOO 60 RIMM HNCS 50 BVSN RIMM NTAP 40 ITWO ALLR 30 BGEN FFIV CTXS JDSU ETEK WEBT 20 VRTS BRCM MSFT RFMD THQI QLGC RSAS INSP ISSX MUSE AFCI HRBC Worst performing stock AMTD (gave it more breathing room since it was also my best performer) Dumb mistake. Didn't keep good records but I truly believe that at least 25% of my 65 bad trades were caused by down grades by my good friends at MER, DLJ, PW, etc, etc, etc. Most important goal for next year is to reduce the average percentage of my loosing trades to 5% as mentioned in HTMMIS. A stock should be sold at a 7-8% loss but the average of these losses should be 5%. Sam, please give us a little more information on how you made 370%. Remembering one post you said that you were heavily margined and that if you sold IDPH you would have 80% cash. Do you always stack the deck? How many positions were most held at one time in 1999? Do you average up? Averaging up did not work for me! I could never get the recommended four positions to work for me! ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2000 09:25:48 -0500 From: Sam Funchess Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]1999 Results Started 1999 with $2800 bucks and closed $9700. My core holding most of the year was YHOO. Bought QCOM at 105 and sold at 165 a short time later. The QCOM was entirely on margin. I've never held more than 5 stocks. I picked up Celestica and made a 95% return, all on margin. IDPH was a double up mistake. Overall trades produced a 9.5% gain. Had a 35% gain right at the end of the year and doubled up on strength and was burned pretty quick. The second (double up) trade actually occurred in 2000 so really doesn't count. I only made 14 trades in 1999, of which, 5-7 were margin calls. The highest portfolio value that I attained in 1999 was $11,500 but of course, I was not able to sell at the top. As for your question of averaging up; well I rarely do that except in extreme cases. I too have been burned on just about every secondary purchase. Do I stack the deck? Absolutely, when I feel comfortable with the market I am full steam ahead. I will be off margin only in-between trades while I look for a stock. This tends to not exceed a couple of weeks before I have found a stock. Also with $2000 bucks riding, there is little for me to lose. In my non trading account I do not have margin. Now that my portfolio is a little larger I am still only in one position. I am about 60% margined after a purchase of MAKR yesterday. Keeping track of 30 stocks, how do you do it? I can watch my stocks most of the day and still don't think I could manage 30 stocks (and get anything done). As you can tell I had several double digit losses. For 2000, my goal is to reduce my losses to a respectable %. Stock Purchase Sale Return Cost Gain Gain% Qualcomm 04/26/99 09/03/99 1,962 1,258 704 55.94% Oracle 09/14/99 09/16/99 1,877 2,097 (220) - -10.48% Microchip Technologies 12/03/99 12/07/99 1,749 1,883 (134) -7.12% Salton Food Products 12/13/99 12/14/99 997 1,187 (191) -16.05% Critical Path 12/17/99 12/27/99 565 637 (73) - -11.37% Yahoo 10/27/98 02/10/99 2,255 1,046 1,209 115.52% Yahoo 10/27/98 04/14/99 1,900 1,178 722 61.28% Yahoo 01/12/99 04/19/99 1,641 1,964 (323) - -16.45% Yahoo 01/12/99 06/02/99 870 1,179 (308) - -26.17% Yahoo 04/05/99 12/22/99 4,020 2,059 1,960 95.19% Celestica 09/20/99 01/13/00 3,332 1,705 1,627 95.41% Boots & Coots 08/23/99 01/00/00 0 260 (260) - -100.00% Yahoo 04/06/99 01/01/00 6,204 5,380 824 15.31% Idec Pharmaceuticals 01/13/00 15,833 14,466 1,367 9.45% Hope this helps, Sam chris dempsey wrote: > I opened an account in March with 20K and made my first purchase on March > 29th. I finally made the time to put the following results together. > > 10/31/99 $24904 closing value prior to stampede > 12/21/99 $50512 highest closing value > 12/31/99 $49,141.38 year end value 145.7% increase > 11/17/99 $32041 largest margin debt and also the day I had the most > positions 30 > Withdrew $28697 at the end of the year so I am starting 2000 with $20444 > 173 closing stock trades 5 put options sold > 109 positive trades with average gain of 18.67% > 64 negative trades with average loss of 8.47% 13 were double digits > 5 put trades - loss of $105 (4 positive 1 negative) > interest $114.56 > margin interest $119.88 > dividend $1.70 > All purchases made were in the $2000 range. Most shares purchased 85 RMDY. > Least shares purchased 8 JDSU - NSOL - YHOO > > The following stocks were sold above the listed percents > 150 AMTD > 120 ACTU > 110 NSOL MSTR > 100 TMPW > 70 YHOO > 60 RIMM HNCS > 50 BVSN RIMM NTAP > 40 ITWO ALLR > 30 BGEN FFIV CTXS JDSU ETEK WEBT > 20 VRTS BRCM MSFT RFMD THQI QLGC RSAS INSP ISSX MUSE AFCI HRBC > > Worst performing stock AMTD (gave it more breathing room since it was also > my best performer) Dumb mistake. > > Didn't keep good records but I truly believe that at least 25% of my 65 bad > trades were caused by down grades by my good friends at MER, DLJ, PW, etc, > etc, etc. > > Most important goal for next year is to reduce the average percentage of my > loosing trades to 5% as mentioned in HTMMIS. A stock should be sold at a > 7-8% loss but the average of these losses should be 5%. > > Sam, please give us a little more information on how you made 370%. > Remembering one post you said that you were heavily margined and that if you > sold IDPH you would have 80% cash. Do you always stack the deck? How many > positions were most held at one time in 1999? Do you average up? Averaging > up did not work for me! I could never get the recommended four positions to > work for me! > > ______________________________________________ > FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com > Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 19 Jan 2000 22:00:27 -0600 From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Chasing Sam Funchess wrote: > > Does anyone feel like they are chasing stocks? Every stock I am looking > at blows past its pivot by 10%+ in one day. Yep. And I hit an instance of not being disciplined enough to layoff - only to get a quick 8% loss. Damn. Biggest mistake - stay disciplined; stick to the rules. Dave - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2000 12:00:30 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] Small caps The !RUT Russell2K is taking the lead, for now at least. It is at a new high (per the close of Wed 1/19). A few weeks ago someone (Tom?) mentioned the !DJ20 Dow Transports (might have) bottomed. The chart shows that it is still struggling. The !DJ15 Dow Utilities did bottom, and broke a short term trendline and is now at an intermediate term trendline. The !OSX Oils index broke out a few days ago. And the !CRB Commodities Index is at a new high today (close of 1/19). While the !TYX 30 year bond index pulled back a little bit. Funny combination. Might it be that the !TYX was overdone and that all Bond traders are so bearish, that any glinster of hope, might induce a rally in bonds? The answer is immaterial IMHO, the major indexes are telling us what to do. Just like WON always thaught. - -- Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: 20 Jan 2000 06:45:07 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]1999 Results I don't think HTMMIS says that at all. Think about it - it's not exactly possible to average 5% if all your initial stops are 7-8% off your buy price. At 08:30 AM 1/20/00 -0500, you wrote: >Most important goal for next year is to reduce the average percentage of my >loosing trades to 5% as mentioned in HTMMIS. A stock should be sold at a >7-8% loss but the average of these losses should be 5%. > >Sam, please give us a little more information on how you made 370%. >Remembering one post you said that you were heavily margined and that if you >sold IDPH you would have 80% cash. Do you always stack the deck? How many >positions were most held at one time in 1999? Do you average up? Averaging >up did not work for me! I could never get the recommended four positions to >work for me! Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: 20 Jan 2000 06:46:28 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] LGTO WHOA! Cross this one off your watch lists! >Sure, 4 and 10 point drops seem pretty awful, but check out the bloodbath >on Legato Systems (LGTO:Nasdaq - news). It was off 20 1/16 to 33 7/8 on >200,000 shares on Island. Tonight, the company announced operational >fourth-quarter earnings of 11 cents a share, which airballed the 19-cent >analyst estimate. Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site PFB Information mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com WWW http://OreRockOn.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2000 15:18:37 +0000 (GMT) From: musicant@pacbell.net (Dan Musicant) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]1999 Results On Thu, 20 Jan 2000 06:45:07 -0800, you wrote: :I don't think HTMMIS says that at all. Think about it - it's not exactly= =20 :possible to average 5% if all your initial stops are 7-8% off your buy = price. I don't know exactly what HTMMIS says about this, but it is definitely WON's position and that of his best "lieutenants" to try to get out of a losing position before your 7% stop is hit -- if you can. If your losers average 7% loss, you are not being honest with yourself. You can often see that something is wrong before your stop gets hit. You are better off averaging far less than 7% on a loss. Often, 2-3% can be sustained on a loss. Dan :At 08:30 AM 1/20/00 -0500, you wrote: :>Most important goal for next year is to reduce the average percentage = of my :>loosing trades to 5% as mentioned in HTMMIS. A stock should be sold at = a :>7-8% loss but the average of these losses should be 5%. :> :>Sam, please give us a little more information on how you made 370%. :>Remembering one post you said that you were heavily margined and that = if you :>sold IDPH you would have 80% cash. Do you always stack the deck? How = many :>positions were most held at one time in 1999? Do you average up? = Averaging :>up did not work for me! I could never get the recommended four = positions to :>work for me! : :Tim Fisher, 1995 President, Pacific Fishery Biologists :Ore-ROCK-On Rockhounding Web Site :PFB Information :mailto:tim@OreRockOn.com :WWW http://OreRockOn.com : : :- : - - ------------------------------ Date: 20 Jan 2000 08:49:21 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: [CANSLIM] Wow! Can you say "Pump & Dump"? Another golden buying opportunity for RFMD. He actually had the guts to downgrade it while upping the EPS and price target! P.S. This is exactly why I believe you can't have a 7% buy stop in this finicky market (unless you actually enjoy day-trading) - I'd bet my shirt this one is headed up short-term. >Thursday January 20, 11:33 am Eastern Time > >RESEARCH ALERT - RF Micro Devices cut > >NEW YORK, Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray analyst Samuel May >cut his rating on wireless communications equipment maker RF Micro Devices >Inc. Thursday to buy from strong buy. > >-- downgrade based on valuation relative to earnings growth. > >-- raised fiscal 2001 earnings-per-share outlook to $0.78 from $0.75. > >-- price target changed to $98. > >-- said fiscal third-quarter results Tuesday in line with U.S. Bancorp >forecast. > >-- shares off 4-3/4 to 79-3/4. Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2000 21:32:47 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: [CANSLIM] NITE NITE rumours floating around.. possible criminal activity charges after the close. NITE is Knight Trimark. If I remember correctly, Tom was quite bullish on this co (for the long term). Whether the rumours are true or not is immaterial. The fact is the chart told you long before that this issue was in trouble somehow. Disclosure: I'm short. BTW: yes I know about the other "rumour" that NITE will be history someday as ECNs are going to replace NITE and cohorts. As I said: Who cares about rumours. It is the charts that gives one the true opportunities. - -- Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2000 13:45:33 -0700 From: Deepak Kapur Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NITE Hi Johan, Would you care to elaborate on >Whether the rumours are true or not is immaterial. The fact is the chart >told you long before that this issue was in trouble somehow. regarding NITE? Thanks, Deepak - - ------------------------------ Date: 20 Jan 2000 13:06:47 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NITE I was out of it in Dec - bot low & sold lower - won't do that again. I gave up on it when it failed to break over the 200 DMA and stay there. The news has been stellar for a month (blowout quarter, revenue through the roof, upgrades galore, etc.) and yet the stock has gone steadily down...that was the warning (big, red, flashing, strobe lights, neon) sign. IMHO. On 12:32 PM 1/20/00 , Johan Van Houtven Said: >NITE rumours floating around.. possible criminal activity charges after the >close. > >NITE is Knight Trimark. If I remember correctly, Tom was quite bullish on >this co (for the long term). > >Whether the rumours are true or not is immaterial. The fact is the chart >told you long before that this issue was in trouble somehow. > >Disclosure: I'm short. > >BTW: yes I know about the other "rumour" that NITE will be history someday >as ECNs are going to replace NITE and cohorts. As I said: Who cares about >rumours. It is the charts that gives one the true opportunities. > > > > > >-- Johan Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2000 22:08:08 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NITE Deepak, Please take a look at the chart and let me know what you want to know. I shorted it on 01/10. At 01:45 PM 20-01-00 -0700, you wrote: >Hi Johan, > >Would you care to elaborate on > >>Whether the rumours are true or not is immaterial. The fact is the chart >>told you long before that this issue was in trouble somehow. > >regarding NITE? > >Thanks, > >Deepak > >- > > - -- Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2000 17:14:32 -0500 From: Craig Griffin Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NITE Johan, At 10:08 PM 1/20/00 +0100, you wrote: >Please take a look at the chart and let me know what you want to know. I >shorted it on 01/10 How did you decide to short it on 01/10? Looks like a better choice than I would have probably made (01/11 - break under 50 dma). Best Regards, Craig - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 21 Jan 2000 09:05:18 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]1999 Results and some good news Chris and all others who added to this thread "1999 results": Thank you. Seeing the exact amount of money involved, helped me enormously in understanding how some are able to how a stock as long as you sometimes do. I now understand it is not only a game of percentages [for me]. It is also the effective amount of money that is involved. I also have some good news: I you start with $20K and make 145.7% per year for the next 10 years you will have x 20K x 8017.7 = $160,000,000 Something to look forward to, no? ;^) At 08:30 AM 20-01-00 -0500, you wrote: >I opened an account in March with 20K and made my first purchase on March >29th. I finally made the time to put the following results together. > >10/31/99 $24904 closing value prior to stampede >12/21/99 $50512 highest closing value >12/31/99 $49,141.38 year end value 145.7% increase >11/17/99 $32041 largest margin debt and also the day I had the most >positions 30 >Withdrew $28697 at the end of the year so I am starting 2000 with $20444 >173 closing stock trades 5 put options sold >109 positive trades with average gain of 18.67% >64 negative trades with average loss of 8.47% 13 were double digits >5 put trades - loss of $105 (4 positive 1 negative) >interest $114.56 >margin interest $119.88 >dividend $1.70 >All purchases made were in the $2000 range. Most shares purchased 85 RMDY. >Least shares purchased 8 JDSU - NSOL - YHOO > >The following stocks were sold above the listed percents >150 AMTD >120 ACTU >110 NSOL MSTR >100 TMPW >70 YHOO >60 RIMM HNCS >50 BVSN RIMM NTAP >40 ITWO ALLR >30 BGEN FFIV CTXS JDSU ETEK WEBT >20 VRTS BRCM MSFT RFMD THQI QLGC RSAS INSP ISSX MUSE AFCI HRBC > >Worst performing stock AMTD (gave it more breathing room since it was also >my best performer) Dumb mistake. > >Didn't keep good records but I truly believe that at least 25% of my 65 bad >trades were caused by down grades by my good friends at MER, DLJ, PW, etc, >etc, etc. > >Most important goal for next year is to reduce the average percentage of my >loosing trades to 5% as mentioned in HTMMIS. A stock should be sold at a >7-8% loss but the average of these losses should be 5%. > >Sam, please give us a little more information on how you made 370%. >Remembering one post you said that you were heavily margined and that if you >sold IDPH you would have 80% cash. Do you always stack the deck? How many >positions were most held at one time in 1999? Do you average up? Averaging >up did not work for me! I could never get the recommended four positions to >work for me! > >______________________________________________ >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >Sign up at http://www.mail.com?sr=mc.mk.mcm.tag001 > > >- > > - -- Johan - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #801 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.