From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #813 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, February 2 2000 Volume 02 : Number 813 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through [CANSLIM] Quoting WON...do you transcribe or paste? Re: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year: GUARANTEED! [CANSLIM] M Re: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year: GUARANTEED! [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year guaranteed Re: [CANSLIM] IBD - Now cups with no handles Re: [CANSLIM] IBD - Now cups with no handles Re: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year: GUARANTEED! Re: [CANSLIM] M Re: [CANSLIM] My Method -- still needs sharpning Re: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year: GUARANTEED! [CANSLIM] Chicken or the Egg?? Re: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year: GUARANTEED! Re: [CANSLIM] My Method -- still needs sharpning Re: [CANSLIM] M [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group Re: [CANSLIM] M Re: [CANSLIM] M [CANSLIM] XLNX + CMTN ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: 30 Jan 2000 13:16:41 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Follow-through It needs to be 3-10 days after the low which was yesterday (so far). If we get it then I think Woodward's analysis of a leg up would show that we are good for 4850 on the NASDAQ (rough guess) before the next pause. On 12:57 PM 2/1/00 , Anindo Majumdar Said: > Was today the follow through on the NAZDAQ ? > >Anindo Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2000 18:45:00 -0800 From: han.26@osu.edu Subject: [CANSLIM] Quoting WON...do you transcribe or paste? pre: >No. You start counting a few days after the low. The low was yesterday. : How do you tell when the market is turning up for real? O'NEIL: At some point on the way down...< trivial question, but do you have a copy of HTMMIS online, on your computer, or do you actually type out these quotations? If you have it electronically, would you mind sharing the URL or emailing the document? Thanks, Jim the short-term bear - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2000 18:04:16 -0700 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year: GUARANTEED! I assume you are asking about QLGC, so I'll answer based on that. My sell rules these days are: 1 - Sell if the stock closes at -8% (unless it's up above that limit just after market open) 2 - Once the stock has gained 15%, sell if it closes below the purchase price. (again, giving it a chance at the open) 3 - Watch major trend lines, WONs sell signals, etc 4 - Consider selling any stock that moves down after a 25% gain (i.e. closes above 25% and then below 20%, 50/40, 75/60, etc) Given these rules, I have held QLGC since Nov 1. I believe I might have violated rule 4 at one point, but that rule is for my weaker holdings and QLGC has been a strong holding so far. I have been using the 50 day EMA as my sell point on it for the most part, and it hasn't violated it yet. I do watch for other signals, and I might have sold during the runup on 1/3 if I had caught it. As it turned out, I moved WAY up the last 1/2 hour and moved down the next day so rapidly that I didn't get a chance to sell near 180. I am hoping to hang onto this one for 6 months plus unless it tells me otherwise. I have modified my sell rules from earlier this year (1999). Using the ATR approach, I seemed to guarantee I would get out on every good dip. A little patience on RFMD or ETEK (twice) would have paid great dividends, but instead I sold at short term lows. Given these lessons, I am trying to pick only the best leaders, and once they've achieved a nice gain, I want to try to hang on. I am trying NOT to let the losses pile up (down 20% on LGTO, and GLAD I didn't give it any more time.), but I want to give them a good chance for success once they've moved up. Another stock I did very well with was CMVT that I purchased in August and sold a couple weeks ago only because I wanted to get into the ETEK/JDSU buy-out situtation. At 10:26 AM 2/1/00 +0100, you wrote: >At 07:37 PM 31-01-00 -0700, you wrote: >>And let's see, here's the purchase data. >> >>ETEK 183.75 on 1/18 (Hope that ends up as JDSU @ 167!!!) >>QLGC 101.875 on 11/1 > >Excellent example of long term holding. I would have sold at at least one >or two points along the way. But holding was the correct thing to do. I'd >be quite afraid to hold it at this point. But I know ZIP about holding long >term. > >What has motivated you to hold along the way? What selling rule are you >using here? > >>SEBL 93.1875 on 1/26 >>APEX 30.25 on 12/23 >> >> >> >> >> >>- >> >> > >-- Johan > > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2000 18:13:44 -0700 From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] M Am I alone in watching the market for a SELL signal? I see all these messages about watching for a follow-through day, but we haven't had 4 or 5 distributions days in a week or two, I think we have 2 on the NASDAQ. I do agree this has been cause for concern, but I don't believe the action has been such that a follow-through day is needed. The market has been giving some very mixed signals, and is somewhat down for January (5% for S&P, 4% for NAS100). I haven't seen any confirmation in IBD of this being a downtrend, other than maybe a short term correction. I'm still counting Distribution Days and (most importantly), watching my stocks closely. At this point I am fully invested, with neither of my Jan purchases closing off 8%. Am I missing something, or are the M comments starting to tend towards a "day-trading" market analysis instead of a CANSLIM intermediate term view? - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2000 18:43:19 -0800 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year: GUARANTEED! Date sent: Mon, 31 Jan 2000 20:40:46 +0100 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com From: Johan Van Houtven > I would like to know what stocks you are holding *now*, that you feel have > the potential to become big time winners in the comming months. I'm with Tim on this I think, I usually don't try to forecast ahead too much on what I will hold, it depends on how the stock performs. I also have learned that if I make up my mind about a stock and get locked in on that view, I can hold a stock too long. That said, in my IRA account, where I try to keep trading to a minimum, I have BRCM (bought a little over a year ago), would like to hang on to that for a while, as long as it can crank out 100+% earnings gains. But that one could sit and base for quite a long time, may not move much this year after the stellar gains of last year. Also, Nokia looks good, if the price can hold up I would like to hang on to that one. I learned with my early exit of CSCO (about 6 years too early) that if a company can keep churning out very good earnings, its going to continue to appreciate in price (very simple lesson, don't know why I didn't figure that out earlier), so would like to give both of these some time. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 01 Feb 2000 18:54:08 -0800 From: Mary Keener Subject: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year guaranteed What a great post for attention and comments. It caught my eye, but yours usually do. I want to be a long-term trader, but find I'm in the short-term track. This is really hurting my account. If not for some spectacular winners such as AOL, GNET, YHOO and SFP, I'd be out of the investment field altogether. I buy solid companies - good fundamentals with healthy charts. My buying times aren't the greatest, and I either get out too early, or stay in too long. I'm holding APEX bought @37.50 on 1-20-00 CSCO " 115.00 on 1-24-00 SFP 32.75 on 8-24-99 RHAT 116.75 on 12-30-99 ORCL 55.75 on 1-25-00 JDSU 199.00 on 1-18-00 Regards, Mary - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2000 21:30:06 -0800 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD - Now cups with no handles Tom, Momentum play. That's what it looks like to me. I'm thinking IBD is trying to cover the interests of many types of traders/investors now. Maybe I need to look at the newspaper as a totally different product than HTMMIS was. While it does offer the insight needed for CANSLIM, it is also catering to momentum/value players too. I think IBD carries a lot of clout these days so it does serve a purpose in keeping the market "hot". (g) - -Bill Triffet - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley To: Sent: Monday, January 31, 2000 9:33 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD - Now cups with no handles > As many of us have been saying for some time, and esp since > the 26 week series came out, it's time for a cover to cover > rewrite of HTMMIS. Too much has changed, and the charts and > examples are simply too outdated. > > For the past several years I will admit that I have had many > of my watch list candidates lift off on only a few weeks > basing action. For the most part, they left the station > without me for various reasons. That's why I continue to try > and fill my watch list with stocks just starting a base, and > not try to limit myself with finding ones already with a 5-6 > week base. > > As for buying a "cup formation" with no handle, I feel > that's pure momentum playing. Can work for some, esp if they > have the time to watch carefully and have the discipline to > pull the plug if it doesn't work. But that certainly isn't > CANSLIM as WON has traditionally taught it. Maybe some of > his writers are being given some room to float some "trial > balloons"?? - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2000 21:44:24 -0800 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD - Now cups with no handles Sam, Could you imagine them putting out an article on the front page about maybe going to cash? They only hint that from time to time in The Big Picture section. My impression is they are trying to make the best of a momentum play market. Can't wait to see year end churning results of some of the growth mutual funds trades. Obviously, these wild whipsaws can't all be caused by us little old individual investors. - -Bill Triffet - ----- Original Message ----- From: Sam Funchess To: Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2000 5:51 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] IBD - Now cups with no handles > I must agree, when I read the article I began wondering if they were really > reaching here. It makes me feel even more uneasy about the current market. > Maybe they are just as confused as to what the market will do. When I read the > commentary next to the index graphs, you can tell they are struggling. The > market seems to be acting normal in volume and up/down days but leadership only > last for a couple of days (IMO). So what can they say? Can't leave the space > empty now can they? - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2000 00:44:24 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year: GUARANTEED! EPIQ is just one of many examples of how microcaps are treated. Suddenly in favor, the spread tightens, "relatively" small volume causes huge moves. Disinterest sets in, spreads expand to ridiculous percentages, excellent time to only use limits on buys and sells. Under the old rules, it was more difficult. Now, with the Order Display rules, the playing ground is more level. If you're a trader, you would have been out a long time ago (truth is, lack of liquidity would likely have kept you from ever entering). As a long term investor, it's a little easier, and calmer, to review the fundies and the CANSLIM character. Right now, doesn't present any meaningful CANSLIM quality, but it's day will return, and that's why it sometimes real useful to keep a stock on a watch list, so that you occasionally check on it. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: Johan Van Houtven To: Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2000 5:18 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year: GUARANTEED! Hi Tom, Thx for sharing. Excellent examples. Some random remarks: TMBS is a stock I have held for a while approx 2 years ago, if I remember correctly. Had excellent fundies. Problem was that it way to volatile for me to be comfortable with at that time. EPIQ. Wow, unbelievable how they drive it up and down in such a relatively short time (5 weeks). At 01:01 AM 01-02-00 -0500, you wrote: >Hi Johan, > >Not sure how useful it will be to the group to add my own >"microcap/small cap" perspective, but at least want to >provide one way of holding thru all the corrections. It's >actually quite easy, work 15 hours a day, have no time to >watch the market during the day, be too tired to be bothered >looking at charts when you finally get home, be too sleepy >the next morning to make intelligent decisions so do >nothing, and next thing you know you've owned the same >stocks for a year or more. > >That said, the ones I am still holding more for fundies >reasons than CANSLIM, and think could be triple digit >winners for me in 2000, are TMBS (still in a profit); EPIQ >(profitable till today); MSON (nice profit). I am also >holding SOCR and DTEK, not so sure about their long term >health, but see some possibilities. > >I have also got some good ones on my watch list, but since >it's been several weeks since I could do a decent >evaluation, will hold off on them. They, at least, are there >for CANSLIM reasons, so want to make them current before >mentioning. > >Tom Worley >stkguru@netside.net >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > >----- Original Message ----- >From: Johan Van Houtven >To: >Sent: Monday, January 31, 2000 2:40 PM >Subject: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year: GUARANTEED! > > >Ok, now that I have your attention: ;^) > >At the beginning of 2001 we will no doubt be comparing >performances again. > >And some of us will come forward and explain how they bought >SDPC >(SuperDuper Co) in Januari @ 50 and held this terrific stock >through all >intermediate corrections as it was "clearly" a leader. Yup, >I was already >pretty obvious to you that this stock was a born leader. > >And this "superb" stock is now, at the end of 2000 that is, >at 400. Netting >you a healty, well-deserved, 700% profit, no less. > >It is still undervalued "obviously" and you have no >intention of selling it >now. Hold your winners! > >Maybe the story above is a "bit" overdone. I did that >in the hope to >increase the entertainment value. Butt I hope you understood >what I'm >getting at. > >Let me come to the most important part now: > >I would like to know what stocks you are holding *now*, that >you feel have >the potential to become big time winners in the comming >months. > >The ones that you expect to be your core holdings throughout >the year and >that are going to *make* your year. The ones you will be >mentioning proudly >at the end of the year. > >I would like to hear from you *now*. Because I want to know >how anyone >could have bought QCOM on a "dip", at let us say 150. Then >watch it fall to >100 for example. Sit with this loss for months. See it run >up again to 150. >While continuing to hold it tight all the way up to 600. >Eventually >quadrupling your money, as you had always know it would do. > >Name 'em now, please. Which potential winners are you >holding right now >through this correction? Maybe you still have a profit in >them? Maybe you >have a small or big loss in them at the moment? But you are >determined to >hold it as you feel or know this one will be a winner. > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >-- Johan > > > >- > > > >- > > - -- Johan - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2000 21:55:56 -0800 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Earl, I'm with you here. Based on my readings of the market these up and down volume days are of little consequence compared to all of last year. In other words - the volume has been huge on both up and down days compared to several months ago. This spells pure momentum to me. I'm still about 40% in the market with CMVT, SEBL, CAMP, RFMD, and CVG. I expect to be in more cash tomorrow if CMVT falls a point. Really wouldn't mind being totally in cash for a while. - -Bill Triffet - ----- Original Message ----- From: Earl Setser To: Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2000 5:13 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] M > Am I alone in watching the market for a SELL signal? I see all these > messages about watching for a follow-through day, but we haven't had 4 or 5 > distributions days in a week or two, I think we have 2 on the NASDAQ. I do > agree this has been cause for concern, but I don't believe the action has > been such that a follow-through day is needed. The market has been giving > some very mixed signals, and is somewhat down for January (5% for S&P, 4% > for NAS100). I haven't seen any confirmation in IBD of this being a > downtrend, other than maybe a short term correction. > > I'm still counting Distribution Days and (most importantly), watching my > stocks closely. At this point I am fully invested, with neither of my Jan > purchases closing off 8%. Am I missing something, or are the M comments > starting to tend towards a "day-trading" market analysis instead of a > CANSLIM intermediate term view? > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2000 00:50:41 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] My Method -- still needs sharpning From the perspective of a formerly active stock broker, and licensed (inactive) Registered Options Principal: Options are the riskiest form of "investing" (truth is, no broker I ever knew even considered it "investing", just gambling and speculating). The only form of options trading I ever considered a legitimate part of a true investment portfolio was writing covered calls. Everything else to do with options was speculative. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: Pritish M Shah To: Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2000 11:04 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] My Method -- still needs sharpning Here is my method that I am going to employ. I have looked at it and looked at it and have found it to be the winner if I base my stock selections on winners like our lord and savior WON says (please it is just a joke don't get offended by it -- it points out the irony of the situation where we are hopping mad to make money) 1) Compile a list of winners (probably 50 or so stocks) that have the best EPS/RSR and has extremely strong institutional holding and are being followed by more than one company and are over $1 bil in market cap. 2) Watch them like a hawk for a pullback to close to 50DMA -- these stocks almost never cross below 50DMA. If they do, they immediately jump up like crazy (CSCO, SUNW are recent examples). Some of these stocks jump from their 200DMA 3) Once they reach the 50DMA, put in your purchase of the option that is $5 to $10 below the current price. Have it atleast 6 months to 2 years out. 4) Watch your returns in 3 digits within a week or a month. 5) And if you do this in your Roth IRA (leaps), then you do not have to worry about the taxes. Over the last six months, I have seen this happening again and again and again and again. I have had extremely decent returns. Caution: 1) Be prepared to lose 100% of the money. If you cannot take the heat, get out of the fire. 2) Use only 25% of your money in doing this. Otherwise you could wind up losing all your money. The rest 75%, put it in some mutual fund or something like that. As an example of the potential power of LEAPS, MSFT Jan02 $90 option is available for around $30. If MSFT goes up 20% per year, you are looking at $150 by Jan02. That would give you $60 as inherent value of your options. Now, MSFT does have a tendency of touching its 200DMA so watch MSFT to do that before you buy their options. Last time MSFT went on a tear (in Nov/Dec), you could have easily quadrapuled your money. PLEASE COMMENT BECAUSE I AM TRYING TO HONE THIS TO PERFECTION. Regards, Pritish - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2000 22:11:47 -0800 From: "Bill Triffet" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year: GUARANTEED! Earl, I too got caught selling ETEK on its short term low. I do remind myself though that preservation of capital is key for me. Also, that low was a dive from 133 to 99 in just three days! Sure looked like an intermediate top to me. It still left me with a 93% profit as I sold just after the 50dma bounce back. - -Bill Triffet - ----- Original Message ----- From: Earl Setser To: Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2000 5:04 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year: GUARANTEED! >A little patience on RFMD or ETEK (twice) would have paid great dividends, > but instead I sold at short term lows - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2000 01:25:56 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] Chicken or the Egg?? Which comes first, fiscal reform, or economic recovery? STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update 2 February 2000 Japan Borrows From Banks To Float Economy Summary Japanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi said Jan. 28 that his country would forgo fiscal reforms until the economy stabilizes. On the same day, the Japanese government announced it would begin borrowing money directly from Japanese banks to cover budget shortfalls. By refusing to implement deep, painful and necessary reforms - and instead borrowing from domestic banks to fund additional unworkable government "stimulus packages"- Japan has sentenced itself to a descending spiral of economic malaise. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2000 01:04:44 -0500 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year: GUARANTEED! WON really, badly, needs to update his "rules". A 1% up or down day seems lately to be happening as much by chance as by market action. How do you identify the "quality" or validation of indicators of a 1%, or even 2 or 3%, up day that occurs in less than the prerequisite 4 days or so, against a miserly 1% that takes 4-7 days to develop? Which index matters? Is a 1% (or 2, 3, 4%) move on the Naz more important than the same move on the Dow 30? What guidelines still apply? Come on Bill, help us out here, we need something more current than a book now approaching 8 years out of date. And the 26 week or so series doesn't really answer the question. It's time for the guru to speak, not some of his editorial writers in IBD. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: Johan Van Houtven To: Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2000 4:10 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 300-400% profit per year: GUARANTEED! At 12:57 PM 01-02-00 -0800, you wrote: > Was today the follow through on the NAZDAQ ? No. You start counting a few days after the low. The low was yesterday. : How do you tell when the market is turning up for real? O'NEIL: At some point on the way down, the indexes will attempt to rebound or rally. Bear markets normally come in two or three waves interrupted by several attempted 'false' rallies that usually fizzle out after one, two or three weeks and occasionally five to six weeks or more. Eventually, after almost every stock has broken down and sold off in price and enough bad news and time have passed, the market finds real support. One of these attempted rallies will finally ''follow through,'' showing real power, indicated by one or more of the indexes (Dow, S&P 500 or Nasdaq composite) closing up 1% or more, with a significant jump in volume from the day before. You can't tell much on the first or second day of a rally with all its exuberance. Short sellers, who sell borrowed shares in hopes the price will drop, also rush in to buy back their shares. The rally has yet to prove itself and still may be false. The market often settles back for a day or more. If it comes on again with clearly overwhelming power, you may have a valid follow-through trading session. This second confirmation of a new upturn in the market will usually occur the fourth through the seventh day of the attempted rally. Follow-throughs after the 10th day indicate the rally may be weak and prone to failure. I watch the Dow Jones industrials, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq composite indexes on IBD's General Market & Sectors page every day. An initial follow-through can occur on any one of the indexes and is usually followed a few days later on another index. I have never missed the beginning of a new bull market with this method of tracking the general market indexes carefully. - -- Johan - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2000 06:22:16 -0600 (CST) From: Pritish M Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] My Method -- still needs sharpning Tom, You are right when you point out that options are the riskiest form of investing. Truth be told, it is just like gambling -- in the form that most people use. Granted, that it is hard to be diciplined when playing with options. But what if you do manage to be diciplined by 1) Putting max 25% of your portfolio at risk 2) Buying options on choice stocks only 3) Making sure that the options are long-term 4) Sticking to the rules at all costs I have known a person (whom I hold in extreme high regards) who only plays options. He has managed to make atleast 40% a year for the last 10 years. Currently, he has over couple millions in his portfolio. Ofcourse, you need to have the guts to say that I am willing to lose it all but if you stick to the diciplined rules, wouldn't you really minimize your losses. Regards, Pritish On Wed, 2 Feb 2000, Tom Worley wrote: > >From the perspective of a formerly active stock broker, and > licensed (inactive) Registered Options Principal: > > Options are the riskiest form of "investing" (truth is, no > broker I ever knew even considered it "investing", just > gambling and speculating). > > The only form of options trading I ever considered a > legitimate part of a true investment portfolio was writing > covered calls. Everything else to do with options was > speculative. > > Tom Worley > stkguru@netside.net > chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Pritish M Shah > To: > Sent: Tuesday, February 01, 2000 11:04 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] My Method -- still needs sharpning > > > > Here is my method that I am going to employ. I have looked > at it and > looked at it and have found it to be the winner if I base my > stock > selections on winners like our lord and savior WON says > (please it is > just a joke don't get offended by it -- it points out the > irony of the > situation where we are hopping mad to make money) > > 1) Compile a list of winners (probably 50 or so stocks) that > have the > best EPS/RSR and has extremely strong institutional holding > and are being > followed by more than one company and are over $1 bil in > market cap. > > 2) Watch them like a hawk for a pullback to close to > 50DMA -- these > stocks almost never cross below 50DMA. If they do, they > immediately jump > up like crazy (CSCO, SUNW are recent examples). Some of > these stocks jump > from their 200DMA > > 3) Once they reach the 50DMA, put in your purchase of the > option that is > $5 to $10 below the current price. Have it atleast 6 months > to 2 years out. > > 4) Watch your returns in 3 digits within a week or a month. > > 5) And if you do this in your Roth IRA (leaps), then you do > not have to > worry about the taxes. > > Over the last six months, I have seen this happening again > and again and > again and again. I have had extremely decent returns. > > Caution: > > 1) Be prepared to lose 100% of the money. If you cannot take > the heat, get > out of the fire. > > 2) Use only 25% of your money in doing this. Otherwise you > could wind up > losing all your money. The rest 75%, put it in some mutual > fund or > something like that. > > As an example of the potential power of LEAPS, > > MSFT Jan02 $90 option is available for around $30. If MSFT > goes up 20% > per year, you are looking at $150 by Jan02. That would give > you $60 as > inherent value of your options. Now, MSFT does have a > tendency of > touching its 200DMA so watch MSFT to do that before you buy > their > options. Last time MSFT went on a tear (in Nov/Dec), you > could have > easily quadrapuled your money. > > PLEASE COMMENT BECAUSE I AM TRYING TO HONE THIS TO > PERFECTION. > > Regards, > Pritish > > - > > > > - > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2000 09:13:55 -0500 From: Sam Funchess Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M Earl Setser wrote: > Am I alone in watching the market for a SELL signal? I see all these > messages about watching for a follow-through day, but we haven't had 4 or 5 > distributions days in a week or two, I think we have 2 on the NASDAQ. I do > agree this has been cause for concern, but I don't believe the action has > been such that a follow-through day is needed. The market has been giving > some very mixed signals, and is somewhat down for January (5% for S&P, 4% > for NAS100). I haven't seen any confirmation in IBD of this being a > downtrend, other than maybe a short term correction. I agree with you in that the market has not given 4-5 distribution days on the Naz. THe Dow on the other hand has. This concerned me and put me on the defensive. I am not waiting for a follow-through day as much as I am looking for strong leadership, which I have not seen. There are several stocks that are holding their own but not beginning a strong breakout. > > > I'm still counting Distribution Days and (most importantly), watching my > stocks closely. At this point I am fully invested, with neither of my Jan > purchases closing off 8%. Am I missing something, or are the M comments > starting to tend towards a "day-trading" market analysis instead of a > CANSLIM intermediate term view? > My account has become a day trading account because of the volatility and the 8% stop loss rule. THis was not action I was attempting to profit from, in fact I have not made money on a single trade in 2000 and it is starting to bug me. I still scan IBD daily for some strong leadership but have found little. I am still watching CLEC pretty closely but it is just a bit too extended on yesterdays action on light volume. Pretty frustrated at this point though, and I am having a hard time keeping focused. Sam > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2000 08:00:01 -0700 From: owner-canslim@xmission.com (Jeff Salisbury) Subject: [CANSLIM] Sending large files to the canslim group Everyone, There are times when you may wish to share large files with our group (i.e. gif, jpeg, spreadsheets, etc). Our list is configured to reject large postings (even if they are properly encoded) since the sheer volume has caused problems in the past. As an alternative, we have provided an anonymous ftp site. To provide your file to the group, please follow these instructions: 1. Send your file to: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ If you need some help doing this step, there are ftp instructions below. 2. Send mail to me directly at "owner-canslim@xmission.com" telling me the name of the file that you uploaded. I will move the file from the incoming directory, to the canslim directory where people will be able to download your file. 3. After I notify you that the file has been moved to the canslim directory, you should send an email to the canslim group describing your file, and its URL (i.e. ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/GreatBoom.gif). Although this may seem unwieldy at first, it really isn't too bad and it solves more problems than it creates. You should note that I do not monitor my email on the weekends as closely as during the week. Therefore, steps 2-3 may take longer over a weekend. Best Regards, Jeff Salisbury =========================================================================== FTP Instructions: 1. Using Netscape, go to the URL: ftp://ftp.xmission.com/pub/users/m/mcjathan/incoming/ 2. On the Netscape "File" menu, select "Upload File..." This will open a file selection widget on your hard-drive. Select the file you wish to upload and hit the "Ok" button. At this point, your file will be uploaded. 3. Eventhough your file has been uploaded, you will not be able to see the file in your netscape browser. The reason for this is that the "incoming" directory is set to write-only for security reasons. - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 02 Feb 2000 17:28:59 +0100 From: Johan Van Houtven Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M If your stocks are behaving well, you have no or little reason to sell them. Fact is that many early leaders have already corrected significantly. So it is obvious that those who owned these stocks should sold. They would now automatically have larger cash positions. Also the CANSLIM experts at tradingmarkets.com (Kevin Marder et al) have been ringing the bell for weeks now. They are in cash or mostly in cash. And their arguments are excellent. The market is so extremely volatile that you are practically forced to behave as a daytrader when your stock is as volatile as the market. BUT I say: Watch out. With so many "experts" in cash, we might set at least a temporary bottom. Don't get drawn into "let's be bearish for weeks now" camp. All one can do is watch the market closely: You see good bases to buy from? Leaders taking of? Is the market behaving as you would want it to behave? Then by all means: do what you think you should do. That being said: I'm 25% invested. But as you already know: It could 100% cash by the time you get this mail. - -- Johan - - ------------------------------ Date: 31 Jan 2000 09:09:43 -0800 From: "Tim Fisher" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M I was 70% cash in my trading accounts yesterday morning. I am 15% cash now. Picked up some high-vol big-cap breakouts (ERICY, BOBJ), and bot others as they bounced up off their 50 or 20dma (CMGI, JNPR, QCOM, QNEGF). Still holding SDLI, CHKP, BVF. Have extremely tight stops on them all (for me). If I don't see a relief rally at 2:15 EST I'll start to get worried. If I do I will be looking to buy NOK, BRCM, AMCC etc. etc. P.S. I see many on my watch lists at their all-time highs today or at least within spitting distance. They were 10% or more off during the 4-hour "V" on Monday. Blink and this market passes you by. Sad but true. On 08:28 AM 2/2/00 , Johan Van Houtven Said: >If your stocks are behaving well, you have no or little reason to sell them. > >Fact is that many early leaders have already corrected significantly. So it >is obvious that those who owned these stocks should sold. They would now >automatically have larger cash positions. > >Also the CANSLIM experts at tradingmarkets.com (Kevin Marder et al) have >been ringing the bell for weeks now. They are in cash or mostly in cash. >And their arguments are excellent. > >The market is so extremely volatile that you are practically forced to >behave as a daytrader when your stock is as volatile as the market. > >BUT I say: Watch out. With so many "experts" in cash, we might set at least >a temporary bottom. Don't get drawn into "let's be bearish for weeks now" >camp. > >All one can do is watch the market closely: You see good bases to buy from? >Leaders taking of? Is the market behaving as you would want it to behave? >Then by all means: do what you think you should do. > >That being said: I'm 25% invested. > >But as you already know: It could 100% cash by the time you get this mail. > > > >-- Johan > > > >- Tim Fisher Ore-Rock-On and Pacific Fishery Biologists WWW Sites Tim@OreRockOn.com WWW: http://OreRockOn.com See naked fish and rocks! - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 2 Feb 2000 21:45:42 -0000 From: "Marc Laniado" Subject: [CANSLIM] XLNX + CMTN XLNX has broken out from a rough trading range $40-50 on relative strength, price and volume CMTN broken out of a large cup and handle over 6 months in price, volume (4X normal) and RS. I know its RS is 77 but digital subscriber line stocks have been breaking out in a number of locations after being ignored in deference to cable modem stocks. Its revenues etc are great. I bought at 63, which is 5% above the handle but below the peak of the original high at the left of the cup. I am still holding CAMP, BRCD, CHINA (painful but I think will be ok great bottom of cup being made!). Good luck! Marc - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #813 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.