From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #880 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, April 21 2000 Volume 02 : Number 880 In this issue: [CANSLIM] CMRC [CANSLIM] A new version of American Pie [CANSLIM] Contrarian indicator Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian indicator Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian indicator Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian indicator ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu, 20 Apr 2000 13:56:42 -0500 From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: [CANSLIM] CMRC Patrick & Ziggy, Thanks for your time and comments. I was late opening some mail, and ran across a CMRC recommendation for a long term B&H at $230/sh. The article provided an overview of the B2B market, CMRC's present position, client list, and showed revenues doubling every *quarter*. All very impressive. I checked the graph and it was making a v-bottom off its low of about $33, with a high of $125.(Must have been split at sometime). Even with a severe market downturn, I couldn't see why it had moved so low. Thanks again. Best wishes, Walt - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 20 Apr 2000 22:49:06 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: [CANSLIM] A new version of American Pie Stole this from Fortune Street Life - it's too good not to pass along, hope they won't mind a ditty sent over by a pal at Goldman Sachs: "Humble Pie." Sing it to Don McLean's (or Madonna's) "American Pie." Have a good weekend! A long, long week ago I can still remember how the market used to make me smile What I'd do when I had the chance Is get myself a cash advance And add another tech stock to the pile. But Alan Greenspan made me shiver With every speech that he delivered Bad news on the rate front Still I'd take one more punt I can't remember if I cried When I heard about the CPI I lost my fortune and my pride The day the NASDAQ died So bye-bye to my piece of the pie Now I'm gettin' calls for margin 'Cause my cash account's dry It's just two weeks from a new all-time high And now we're right back where we were in July We're right back where we were in July Did you buy stocks you never heard of? QCOM at 150 or above? 'Cos George Gilder told you so Now do you believe in Home Depot? Can Wal-Mart save your portfolio? And can you teach me what's a P/E ratio? Well, I know that you were leveraged too So you can't just take a long-term view Your broker shut you down No more margin could be found I never worried on the whole way up Buying dot coms from the back of a pickup truck But Friday I ran out of luck It was the day the NAAAASDAQ died Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 20 Apr 2000 23:28:45 -0400 From: Brian Bellamy Subject: [CANSLIM] Contrarian indicator Hi all. Reading some of the recent posts I notice that there is still a lot of bullish sentiment. For instance, Tom believes M is still bull with this currently being some type of intermediate correction. Recent IBD's have noted that investor sentiment is still about 54% bullish and notes that this is too high to indicate a market turnaround is ready to happen yet. I thought this was interesting. Before catching up and reading some of these posts, I could not understand how 54% could be bull after a 30% drop in market valuation. But, looking at the sentiment on this list it seems accurate. Maybe, gut feelings have not changed enough for the bear to be over. Once some more of the bulls' hearts are twisted and rinsed out by the bear market, then historically all of the last of the bull's have sold who are going to and the new bull market can begin. Hmm, maybe a good indicator of when to jump back in will be when Tom becomes a bear. :) - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 20 Apr 2000 23:59:11 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian indicator Actually, Brian, I've been very bearish for well over a month, which the long term members know is highly unusual for me. Granted, you had to read my limited comments closely to get that impression, but it was there. Last Friday's plunge stripped some of the excess valuation out of the market, and created some doubts in the minds of the dot com followers, but didn't change a whole lot in the market otherwise. Maybe a few novices discovered that you can actually LOSE money in the market. Sorry, but that's part of the tuition expense. My overall bullishness is fostered in part by the economics that I see. But I also see some increasing risks there as well, which makes me more cautious than usual, even in my own account. The recovery this week, along with the overall reaction to earnings reports, gives me the impression that we are moving back into a market where values and earnings (and most importantly rate of earnings growth) will count for something. That favors CANSLIMers. And anyone trying to follow my "bear tracks" better be nimble indeed! Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: Brian Bellamy To: Sent: Thursday, April 20, 2000 11:28 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Contrarian indicator Hi all. Reading some of the recent posts I notice that there is still a lot of bullish sentiment. For instance, Tom believes M is still bull with this currently being some type of intermediate correction. Recent IBD's have noted that investor sentiment is still about 54% bullish and notes that this is too high to indicate a market turnaround is ready to happen yet. I thought this was interesting. Before catching up and reading some of these posts, I could not understand how 54% could be bull after a 30% drop in market valuation. But, looking at the sentiment on this list it seems accurate. Maybe, gut feelings have not changed enough for the bear to be over. Once some more of the bulls' hearts are twisted and rinsed out by the bear market, then historically all of the last of the bull's have sold who are going to and the new bull market can begin. Hmm, maybe a good indicator of when to jump back in will be when Tom becomes a bear. :) - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 21 Apr 2000 06:43:44 -0700 (PDT) From: rolatzi Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian indicator To add a little bearish sentiment. We are presently entering the seasonally weak period of the year. The IRA's have been placed, the taxes paid and the the bank accounts depleted. This period on average runs until the end of October more or less. ciao, rolatzi - --- Brian Bellamy wrote: > Hi all. > Reading some of the recent posts I notice that there is > still a lot of > bullish sentiment. For instance, Tom believes M is still > bull with this > currently being some type of intermediate correction. > Recent IBD's have > noted that investor sentiment is still about 54% bullish > and notes that > this is too high to indicate a market turnaround is ready > to happen yet. > I thought this was interesting. Before catching up and > reading some of > these posts, I could not understand how 54% could be bull > after a 30% > drop in market valuation. But, looking at the sentiment > on this list it > seems accurate. Maybe, gut feelings have not changed > enough for the bear > to be over. Once some more of the bulls' hearts are > twisted and rinsed > out by the bear market, then historically all of the last > of the bull's > have sold who are going to and the new bull market can > begin. Hmm, maybe > a good indicator of when to jump back in will be when Tom > becomes a > bear. :) > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 21 Apr 2000 20:43:29 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian indicator I would partially disagree with this. As a retail broker, I found it was fairly easy to cajole more money out of clients in Jan and Feb as they spent their annual bonuses and pay raises. Come March, their focus was on the taxes they might owe by April 15, and new money was hard to raise, and some cash outflow was seen. After April 15, this eased, and the only clients that were still a problem were the ones that filed for extension, and they less so since they were supposed to have already paid their estimated taxes. But by June the focus was on the family vacation trip, and what it would cost, and not wanting to be bothered about the stock mkt when they could not stay in touch, hence the "summer doldrums". But these doldrums can be deceptive, as they are marked by lighter volume, and with the 2nd qtr earnings cycle starting mid July, volatility could be extreme this year if earnings remain as strong in the 2nd qtr as in the 1st. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: rolatzi To: Sent: Friday, April 21, 2000 9:43 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Contrarian indicator To add a little bearish sentiment. We are presently entering the seasonally weak period of the year. The IRA's have been placed, the taxes paid and the the bank accounts depleted. This period on average runs until the end of October more or less. ciao, rolatzi - --- Brian Bellamy wrote: > Hi all. > Reading some of the recent posts I notice that there is > still a lot of > bullish sentiment. For instance, Tom believes M is still > bull with this > currently being some type of intermediate correction. > Recent IBD's have > noted that investor sentiment is still about 54% bullish > and notes that > this is too high to indicate a market turnaround is ready > to happen yet. > I thought this was interesting. Before catching up and > reading some of > these posts, I could not understand how 54% could be bull > after a 30% > drop in market valuation. But, looking at the sentiment > on this list it > seems accurate. Maybe, gut feelings have not changed > enough for the bear > to be over. Once some more of the bulls' hearts are > twisted and rinsed > out by the bear market, then historically all of the last > of the bull's > have sold who are going to and the new bull market can > begin. Hmm, maybe > a good indicator of when to jump back in will be when Tom > becomes a > bear. :) > > > - > > __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Send online invitations with Yahoo! Invites. http://invites.yahoo.com - - - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #880 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.