From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #928 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Wednesday, June 21 2000 Volume 02 : Number 928 In this issue: [CANSLIM]Newsletter subscription request [CANSLIM] Futures RE: [CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% Re: [CANSLIM]Newsletter subscription request Re: [CANSLIM] TLCM to buy or not to buy Re: NUHC (was Re: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable) Re: [CANSLIM] DV Re: [CANSLIM] DV Re: [CANSLIM]Newsletter subscription request Re: [CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% RE: [CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% Re: [CANSLIM] XLNX Re: [CANSLIM] Futures Re: [CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% Re: [CANSLIM] Futures [CANSLIM] Bill speaks Re: [CANSLIM]Specific Industry Group Rankings Re: [CANSLIM]Specific Industry Group Rankings Re: [CANSLIM] TLCM to buy or not to buy ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 19:04:34 -0400 (EDT) From: chris dempsey Subject: [CANSLIM]Newsletter subscription request Michael Murphy=92s news letter was recently mentioned here. I keep getting requests from him to subscribe. In his request he states that he has made 553% over ten years. My question is the following the correct calculation to find the average annual return? Sorry I can't write it with better math symbols. (((number of years) root of (% of return/100))-1)*100 (((10th) root of (553/100))-1)*100 (((10th) root of (5.53))-1)*100 ((1.1865)-1)*100 1865*100 18.65% average annual return Isn=92t that what the market has average over the past ten years? Whoever answered that post was correct in saying that the news letter was not worth it. ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=3Dsignup - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 19:41:57 -0500 From: Richard Turner Subject: [CANSLIM] Futures Don't shoot me for asking a futures question but I'm interested whether anyone is thinking the way I have recently. I've been at this investing thing for two or three years now and frankly I've lost a lot of money. No I haven't always cut losses but I have also experienced owning stocks that fall so quickly or gap down at the open that a stop would not have helped. So, I'm thinking there are too many uncontrollable variables in the equation for success in investing in stocks. After all, one can be right on the market, right on fundamentals, right on the charts ,then Bam, some news comes out, and the stock plunges before stops can be kicked in. This has happened to me. On the other hand I have a good feel for the general direction of the averages as I watch the indicators in IBD closely. So is it reasonable to get into futures as the markets are coming out of corrections once or twice a year? - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 20:11:46 -0500 From: "John Adair" Subject: RE: [CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% why not buy more and keep a tight trailing stop when it hits 10% gain and more at 20% gain. Ride the hell out of a winner and immediatly drop a loo= ser - -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of chris dempsey Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 7:34 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% Just a reminder of a rule by WON on one of his tapes (I don=92t think it=92= s in either book). To sell half of all positions getting to a 25% gain. I have bought 27 positions since 5/24/00. Seven of these have hit the up = 25% mark. Four were sold for no other reason than hitting 25%. All of which a= re still below where I sold them. Just luck I'm sure. Of the other three one= is above , one at, and one below the 25% mark. I think this is a good rule t= o keep you in the money. However all of these stocks hit 25% rather quickly which takes you to another rule that says you don=92t do anything with th= ese positions for eight weeks for further gains. Two stocks were sold at an 8= % and change loss and three stocks were sold at small gains. I think it was Earl that requested that I keep him posted. Selling is the area I need improving in and I am hoping this helps, only time will tell. The seven to hit 25% were: RFMD ELNT FLEX NUHC TLGD TECH MEDI Which brings me to another question. Since I don=92t like hard stops and = use clothing values to see if the 7-8% rule has been broken, I got stuck with= a couple of stock that broke this rule and then some while I was at a coupl= e day seminar. Has anyone calculated a point where it is too late to sell, = if all the reasons you bought the stock still exist including a RS of 80+? ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=3Dsignup - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 17:38:10 -0700 (PDT) From: Pritish Shah Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Newsletter subscription request Actually 100*(1+x)^10 =3D 100 + 553 or (1+x)^10 =3D 6.53 (653/100) or 1+x =3D 1.2064 or x =3D .2064 or x =3D 20.64% Regards, Shah 408-525-4263 On Tue, 20 Jun 2000, chris dempsey wrote: > Michael Murphy=92s news letter was recently mentioned here. I keep gett= ing > requests from him to subscribe. In his request he states that he has ma= de > 553% over ten years. >=20 > My question is the following the correct calculation to find the averag= e > annual return? Sorry I can't write it with better math symbols. >=20 > (((number of years) root of (% of return/100))-1)*100 >=20 > (((10th) root of (553/100))-1)*100 >=20 > (((10th) root of (5.53))-1)*100 >=20 > ((1.1865)-1)*100 >=20 > 1865*100 >=20 > 18.65% average annual return >=20 > Isn=92t that what the market has average over the past ten years? Whoev= er > answered that post was correct in saying that the news letter was not w= orth > it. >=20 > ______________________________________________ > FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com > Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=3Dsignup >=20 > - >=20 >=20 - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 22:44:42 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TLCM to buy or not to buy Hi Anna, I think one of the most important lessons to learn about the internet and stocks is that you have to find a source of data you are comfortable with, then stick to it so that data at least is handled consistently. I am willing to pay for DGO, and use that exclusively. At DGO, and similar minded sites, they will normally exclude "non recurring" items whether they are gains or losses simply because they are defined as "non recurring". I took a quick peek at DGO on this one, and there are no losses shown for the past 8 qtrs. Likewise, earnings have grown sequentially for five straight qtrs. They were notably strong in the latest two qtrs, and WON's formula for EPS overweighs the latest two. Here are the numbers so you can compare them to Zacks: Annual EPS: (from 1995 thru 1999) 0.23 (0.04) 0.38 0.21 0.46 Latest 8 qtrly earnings (oldest to March '00): 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.14 0.16 0.18 Sales latest 8 qtrly (oldest to March '00): 14.0 12.7 12.1 12.8 13.9 14.9 15.8 17.2 Hope this helps, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 7:12 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TLCM to buy or not to buy Hi Walter, thank you so much for the info.. I use Zacks (www.zacks.com) site to view yearly and quaterly statements and this is what they have: YEARLY 12/31/99 12/31/98 12/31/97 12/31/96 12/31/95 Sales 57.32 54.26 55.44 37.76 39.00 (i.e., from 97 to 98 decrease from 55.44 to 54.26 Diluted EPS Before Non-Recurring Items 0.46 0.25 0.38 (0.04) 0.23 Diluted Net EPS 0.84 (0.22) (0.11) (0.04) 0.23 (i.e, from 96 to 97 to 98 lossess from .04 to .11 to .22) QUATERLY 3/31/0 12/31/99 9/30/99 6/30/99 3/31/99 12/31/98 9/30/98 6/30/98 Sales 17.20 15.80 14.85 13.87 12.81 12.06 12.70 14.02 (i.e. decrease from 14.02 to 12.81 four quaters ago) Diluted EPS Before Non-Recurring Items 0.17 0.16 0.14 0.10 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.05 Diluted Net EPS 0.21 0.25 0.14 0.13 0.32 (0.02) (0.38) 0.05 (i.e. DECREASE from .32 to .21 in the quater of 3/31/2000) Btw, could it be that I should be using earnings BEFORE Non-recurring items? I tend to use the bottom line (net earnings). Incidently, I traded my ADI for this one :) PS: I did not buy SANM after all. Check out SAWS. The numbers seems to be comparable..... Anna Sosis Walter Stock on 06/20/2000 05:23:09 PM Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TLCM to buy or not to buy Hi Anna, Rankings in today's IBD moved up to 97 95 AAA. In the IBD "Follow the Leader" section today, TLCM is the #7 semiconductor company out of 90 in the group (ranked by EPS and RS). Earnings growth last quarter was 260%, as compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Quarterly earnings growth the quarter before were up 700% compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Maintaining earnings at this level is a nice problem to have! Sales are up strongly year over year (and also sequentially). Float is 15.9 million shares - about ideal for me. On May 31, IBD reported that TLCM had 3 funds (rated at A+, A, or A-) in the stock. On June 8, IBD reported 4 funds in the stock. On June 20 (today), IBD reported 6 funds in the stock. The information may be somewhat out of date by the time IBD gets to publish it, but I am interested in the sponsorship trend, not the absolute number. The chart on this stock is textbook cup-and-handle. Good volume dry up at the cup lows and at the handle lows. Also excellent volume clues during the climb on the right hand side of the cup. Breakout today on well over 3 times ADV. Anyway to put my money where my mouth is, I bought a full position before the close (and before reading this thread). Re-reading all this, maybe the stock is too good, and crashes and burns in the morning. Who knows.... I've been wrong before, and have the elephant tracks all over my back to prove it. I put the pivot on the cup-and-handle at 37 1/2 (making it buyable for me up to about 39 3/8). Hope this helps, Anna. Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada asosis@ca.ibm.com wrote: > Hi. > > IBD gives TLCM 96 94 AAA ranking. However, the earnings growth in the last > quater is negative (from .32 to .21) and the prev 3 out of 5 years it had > increasing losses. Can you explain the ranking? Is this stock worth > buying? > > Anna Sosis > > wroblewski@uswest.net on 06/20/2000 10:40:26 AM > > Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > cc: > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] breakouts > > TQNT also. > > Ziggy > > Patrick Wahl wrote: > > > The following stocks either broke out to new highs, or broke out of > > the right side of a cup like formation where the handle was lower > > than the old highs that formed when the nasdaq was going nuts in > > March. I notice many charts are near carbon copies of each > > either, showing the influence and importance of the Market and the > > sector. > > > > MXIM > > INTC > > ADI > > NOK > > ORCL > > CIEN > > BRCD > > JNPR > > TXN > > > > - > > - > > - - - - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 23:06:38 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: NUHC (was Re: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable) Just remember that DGO reports Management ownership as a %age of the issue, and Funds ownership as a %age of the float. Where Management still has a large stake, this can distort the %age from site to site, esp on stocks with a small overall nr of shares outstanding. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Friday, June 16, 2000 4:55 AM Subject: Re: NUHC (was Re: [CANSLIM] Stocks breaking out but still reasonable) I use DGO, I think Yahoo shows this info as well > where do you find the % of what stock the funds have? bubbet > > - > - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 23:21:35 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DV Hi Susan, Nice looking chart. If a c&h, pretty flat, but in any case a nice tight base with declining vol. Ranked # 5 in its group, and GRS is at 84. Earnings and sales growth have been steady and consistent, and forecast for this year (+27%) consistent with the 5 year history of +25%. The slight uptrend does not detract from the base, and takes it close to a pivot point. Management still has a 20% stake in the issue, however the one notable neg is that funds already own 31% of the float. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: Susan Strouse To: Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 2:55 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] DV I have been following DV (93 84 AAB) and have seen what I think is a cup and handle. At the end of the handle (or what I thought to be a handle) it has started to trend up. I would appreciate any comments on this chart. I would like to recommend it to my investment club. - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 21:32:22 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] DV WON suggests that the best pattern is a handle that trends lower in price on lower volume. This handle looks good on volume, but the daily lows seem to be creeping up. It almost looks more like a flag that a handle at first glance. A closer look shows that it could be viewed as 3 separate handles with some price lowering in each. If this is valid, then you should still be watching for a B/O above the handle high on at least 1.4X ADV. This could work out for this one, but it's a little different than the others I've been looking at. At 11:55 AM 6/20/00 -0700, you wrote: >I have been following DV (93 84 AAB) and have seen what I think is a cup and >handle. At the end of the handle (or what I thought to be a handle) it has >started to trend up. I would appreciate any comments on this chart. I would >like to recommend it to my investment club. > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 21:37:14 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Newsletter subscription request I heard an internet interview (II?) with MM about a year ago. He was big on tech and the new economy, and pretty much had me convinced that I needed to overweight tech. I ran out and checked into his mutual funds, and found they were pretty much THE WORST tech funds out there. And I mean BAD!!!! I know he also has a newsletter, but I'm not sure the performance numbers are really any better. They did trumpet something about being on the best newsletter list, but when I checked the list, they didn't make it at all. Maybe they were on it once or something. I would look at anything from these guys very carefully. BTW, I did put a big lot of cash into other Tech funds, and have done very well, thank you. At 07:04 PM 6/20/00 -0400, you wrote: >Michael Murphy’s news letter was recently mentioned here. I keep getting >requests from him to subscribe. In his request he states that he has made >553% over ten years. > >My question is the following the correct calculation to find the average >annual return? Sorry I can't write it with better math symbols. > >(((number of years) root of (% of return/100))-1)*100 > >(((10th) root of (553/100))-1)*100 > >(((10th) root of (5.53))-1)*100 > >((1.1865)-1)*100 > >1865*100 > >18.65% average annual return > >Isn’t that what the market has average over the past ten years? Whoever >answered that post was correct in saying that the news letter was not worth >it. > >______________________________________________ >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 21:40:33 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% As far as when to sell, you have to be very careful. I can sight LGTO and EMLX as two examples of strong stocks that just got KILLED. I got out of both at about 20% losses, but avioded much greater losses. Looking back, I don't think the news was really that bad at the time they started moving down, it just seemed to get worse and worse with time. I've changed back to hard stops for this market and I'm managing to stay in most of my positions. At 08:33 PM 6/20/00 -0400, you wrote: >Just a reminder of a rule by WON on one of his tapes (I don’t think it’s in >either book). To sell half of all positions getting to a 25% gain. > >I have bought 27 positions since 5/24/00. Seven of these have hit the up 25% >mark. Four were sold for no other reason than hitting 25%. All of which are >still below where I sold them. Just luck I'm sure. Of the other three one is >above , one at, and one below the 25% mark. I think this is a good rule to >keep you in the money. However all of these stocks hit 25% rather quickly >which takes you to another rule that says you don’t do anything with these >positions for eight weeks for further gains. Two stocks were sold at an 8% >and change loss and three stocks were sold at small gains. I think it was >Earl that requested that I keep him posted. Selling is the area I need >improving in and I am hoping this helps, only time will tell. > >The seven to hit 25% were: > >RFMD >ELNT >FLEX >NUHC >TLGD >TECH >MEDI > >Which brings me to another question. Since I don’t like hard stops and use >clothing values to see if the 7-8% rule has been broken, I got stuck with a >couple of stock that broke this rule and then some while I was at a couple >day seminar. Has anyone calculated a point where it is too late to sell, if >all the reasons you bought the stock still exist including a RS of 80+? > >______________________________________________ >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 21:44:11 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: RE: [CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% Here is my new sell approach. Any comments, jeers, or others are welcome. The idea is to start with a -8% stop and transition it to a -15% trailing stop as the stock advances. I've just started trying this, and I haven't been chased out of anything based on these rules yet. These are based on closing numbers: Closing High Hard Stop After buy Buy-8% Buy+2% Buy-7% Buy+4% Buy-6% Buy+6% Buy-5% Buy+8% Buy-4% Buy+10% Buy-3% Buy+12% Buy-2% Buy+14% Buy-1% Buy+15% High-15% or more At 08:11 PM 6/20/00 -0500, you wrote: >why not buy more and keep a tight trailing stop when it hits 10% gain and >more at 20% gain. Ride the hell out of a winner and immediatly drop a looser > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of chris dempsey >Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 7:34 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: [CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% > > >Just a reminder of a rule by WON on one of his tapes (I don’t think it’s in >either book). To sell half of all positions getting to a 25% gain. > >I have bought 27 positions since 5/24/00. Seven of these have hit the up 25% >mark. Four were sold for no other reason than hitting 25%. All of which are >still below where I sold them. Just luck I'm sure. Of the other three one is >above , one at, and one below the 25% mark. I think this is a good rule to >keep you in the money. However all of these stocks hit 25% rather quickly >which takes you to another rule that says you don’t do anything with these >positions for eight weeks for further gains. Two stocks were sold at an 8% >and change loss and three stocks were sold at small gains. I think it was >Earl that requested that I keep him posted. Selling is the area I need >improving in and I am hoping this helps, only time will tell. > >The seven to hit 25% were: > >RFMD >ELNT >FLEX >NUHC >TLGD >TECH >MEDI > >Which brings me to another question. Since I don’t like hard stops and use >clothing values to see if the 7-8% rule has been broken, I got stuck with a >couple of stock that broke this rule and then some while I was at a couple >day seminar. Has anyone calculated a point where it is too late to sell, if >all the reasons you bought the stock still exist including a RS of 80+? > >______________________________________________ >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > > >- > > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 23:40:58 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] XLNX handle of the cup a tad too high, but we've been seeing a lot of that. More importantly, rising on low volume, I would watch that carefully. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 10:29 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] XLNX How about XLNX [Xilinx]? - -Jim - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2000 00:00:41 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Futures Hi Richard, Speaking as a former stock broker, and Options Principal, options are far more risky than equities. That said, I will add to it by stating that it is far harder to assess where the broad mkt is going than where an individual stock is trending. Options constantly erode your position as time trickles by, doesn't happen with stocks, you can (and sometimes will) own them for what seems forever. The cost of owning options (because of the premium) is far higher than owning stocks. On the other hand, you get leverage with options that far surpasses stocks (even on margin). This can substantially increase your gains (and your losses). Have you looked into writing covered calls, the most conservative of options strategies? Also, have you taken notes at the time of your purchases of stocks as to why you picked them, and why you bot when you did? Have you gone back and tried to assess what you might have missed that led to the gap down? More often, if you have been losing money in the past several years, it was not the fault of the stock so much as your decision making. If you don't cure that problem, options won't change the profits and losses equation. You might try falling back to some paper trading for a while, and post your picks once you make a decision. State your reasoning, and let the group give you some feedback to challenge your thinking on each. I will try to make the time to respond, and I am sure others in the group will do so as well. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: Richard Turner To: Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 8:41 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Futures Don't shoot me for asking a futures question but I'm interested whether anyone is thinking the way I have recently. I've been at this investing thing for two or three years now and frankly I've lost a lot of money. No I haven't always cut losses but I have also experienced owning stocks that fall so quickly or gap down at the open that a stop would not have helped. So, I'm thinking there are too many uncontrollable variables in the equation for success in investing in stocks. After all, one can be right on the market, right on fundamentals, right on the charts ,then Bam, some news comes out, and the stock plunges before stops can be kicked in. This has happened to me. On the other hand I have a good feel for the general direction of the averages as I watch the indicators in IBD closely. So is it reasonable to get into futures as the markets are coming out of corrections once or twice a year? - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2000 00:13:43 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% In an article many years old now (about 10), and published in a trade journal for brokers, WON took a much simpler approach. Start with a hard (or mental) stop down 8% from your entry point (after first picking a correct entry as a stock broke out on vol from a well formed base). This is intended to protect against major loss of capital. Ideally this stop would allow you to hold back to the bottom of this well formed base. Once the stock had moved up 15% from your entry (no discussion on whether you included brokerage fees in your cost basis), then move the stop to down 8% from the prior high closing. At this point you have begun to protect profits. If the stock continued to move higher, then continue to adjust the stop so that it is always 8% below the prior high closing. Never adjust the stop down, if you are stopped out at this point, you still take away a profit. Course, this was back in the good ole days when a 1% move in a major index really deserved to be headline news. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: Earl Setser To: Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 11:44 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% Here is my new sell approach. Any comments, jeers, or others are welcome. The idea is to start with a -8% stop and transition it to a -15% trailing stop as the stock advances. I've just started trying this, and I haven't been chased out of anything based on these rules yet. These are based on closing numbers: Closing High Hard Stop After buy Buy-8% Buy+2% Buy-7% Buy+4% Buy-6% Buy+6% Buy-5% Buy+8% Buy-4% Buy+10% Buy-3% Buy+12% Buy-2% Buy+14% Buy-1% Buy+15% High-15% or more At 08:11 PM 6/20/00 -0500, you wrote: >why not buy more and keep a tight trailing stop when it hits 10% gain and >more at 20% gain. Ride the hell out of a winner and immediatly drop a looser > >-----Original Message----- >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of chris dempsey >Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 7:34 PM >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >Subject: [CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% > > >Just a reminder of a rule by WON on one of his tapes (I don't think it's in >either book). To sell half of all positions getting to a 25% gain. > >I have bought 27 positions since 5/24/00. Seven of these have hit the up 25% >mark. Four were sold for no other reason than hitting 25%. All of which are >still below where I sold them. Just luck I'm sure. Of the other three one is >above , one at, and one below the 25% mark. I think this is a good rule to >keep you in the money. However all of these stocks hit 25% rather quickly >which takes you to another rule that says you don't do anything with these >positions for eight weeks for further gains. Two stocks were sold at an 8% >and change loss and three stocks were sold at small gains. I think it was >Earl that requested that I keep him posted. Selling is the area I need >improving in and I am hoping this helps, only time will tell. > >The seven to hit 25% were: > >RFMD >ELNT >FLEX >NUHC >TLGD >TECH >MEDI > >Which brings me to another question. Since I don't like hard stops and use >clothing values to see if the 7-8% rule has been broken, I got stuck with a >couple of stock that broke this rule and then some while I was at a couple >day seminar. Has anyone calculated a point where it is too late to sell, if >all the reasons you bought the stock still exist including a RS of 80+? > >______________________________________________ >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > > >- > > > >- > > > - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 22:48:15 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Futures The margin on the nasdaq futures is pretty steep these days, if that is what you are talking about, although I think they have a mini nasdaq contract. futures are a fairly tough game, and frequently you will find that on the big up days, the market anticipates a strong day, so the futures will gap up before the market open, so it can be hard to realize more than a small part of the gains on even a large up day. Of course, if you can jump in there at the start of the trend, you'll make up for that on the next strong up day, because then you'll be in there and you'll get the entire move. Risk control can also be difficult, what might seem like a small counter trend move in an up market will look pretty large when you are dealing with the leverage on a futures contract, so you may find it more difficult to sit through the down days that don't look like a big deal when you are not in the market in a big way. I have at times thought that options on nasdaq futures might be a way to try this, but I haven't made any sort of study of the subject to see what the time decay does to the price of the option, those things can be complicated to figure out. On 20 Jun 00, at 19:41, Richard Turner wrote: > Don't shoot me for asking a futures question but I'm interested whether > anyone is thinking the way I have recently. I've been at this investing > thing for two or three years now and frankly I've lost a lot of money. > No I haven't always cut losses but I have also experienced owning stocks > that fall so quickly or gap down at the open that a stop would not have > helped. So, I'm thinking there are too many uncontrollable variables in > the equation for success in investing in stocks. After all, one can be > right on the market, right on fundamentals, right on the charts ,then > Bam, some news comes out, and the stock plunges before stops can be > kicked in. This has happened to me. On the other hand I have a good feel > for the general direction of the averages as I watch the indicators in > IBD closely. So is it reasonable to get into futures as the markets are > coming out of corrections once or twice a year? > > - > - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 22:50:46 -0600 From: "Patrick Wahl" Subject: [CANSLIM] Bill speaks William O'Neil had a column at the cbsmarketwatch site - http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/current/commentary.htx?source= htx/http2_mw or go to the front page and follow the link to his article. - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 23:11:33 -0400 From: "Tom Worley" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Specific Industry Group Rankings Hi Chris, While I will look at them, and do so every week when I review the DGO list, I would never personally buy either medical/drug/biotech stocks (tho will consider med instruments and equipment as some are tech related) or bank stocks. Why? personal experience, I accepted that I will never understand the significance of developments in the first group, and the banks can cook their books far too easily, esp in Real Estate Owned items. I also cannot comprehend why a bank chain of, say, 4 or 5 branches is even publicly traded. Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: chris dempsey To: Sent: Monday, June 19, 2000 12:14 AM Subject: [CANSLIM]Specific Industry Group Rankings The following are the industry group rankings from the first and 16th of each month this year. I try to buy stocks in high and rising rank groups. It looks like medical groups are moving up. Does anyone have any prospects for Medical-Nursing Homes #84 on June 16th? It also looks like tobacco is moving higher, but I don't think I want to touch that one, anyone else feel that way? General industry group is where you would find a stock hitting a new high or low listed in IBD. Does anyone have a list of groups they would never buy from, and why? - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2000 21:17:15 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]Specific Industry Group Rankings I am presently taking Oil & Gas and Transportation-Ship out of my list. I'm doing this because I want to focus on groups with strong growth rather than a more cyclical industry. I think many of the Oil & Gas stocks are up based only on the price of oil. There was a front page article in IBD a couple days ago that discussed the general idea that some of these "older, cyclical" groups aren't likely to be leader for long and it was better to put your money to work elsewhere. Let's see, ah here it is, Monday's paper. Headline reads "Cyclicals Rarely Generate Long-Term Gains". They specifically mention Oil and Gas, Railroads, Airlines, Construction, Stell, and Automobile Mfg. They also dicussed Oil & Gas in some detail, pointing out the good performance this year and in 1996, but note not a lot of growth otherwise. I've been doing this somewhat for a while, and I'm changing to a more formal deletion of these kind of groups from my leaders list. At 12:14 AM 6/19/00 -0400, you wrote: >The following are the industry group rankings from the first and 16th of >each month this year. I try to buy stocks in high and rising rank groups. It >looks like medical groups are moving up. Does anyone have any prospects for >Medical-Nursing Homes #84 on June 16th? It also looks like tobacco is moving >higher, but I don't think I want to touch that one, anyone else feel that >way? > >General industry group is where you would find a stock hitting a new high or >low listed in IBD. > >Does anyone have a list of groups they would never buy from, and why? > - - ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 21 Jun 2000 10:12:37 -0400 From: asosis@ca.ibm.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TLCM to buy or not to buy Thank you, Tom. The numbers "before non-recurring items" in Zacks are identical to DGO. Anna Sosis "Tom Worley" on 06/20/2000 10:44:42 PM Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TLCM to buy or not to buy Hi Anna, I think one of the most important lessons to learn about the internet and stocks is that you have to find a source of data you are comfortable with, then stick to it so that data at least is handled consistently. I am willing to pay for DGO, and use that exclusively. At DGO, and similar minded sites, they will normally exclude "non recurring" items whether they are gains or losses simply because they are defined as "non recurring". I took a quick peek at DGO on this one, and there are no losses shown for the past 8 qtrs. Likewise, earnings have grown sequentially for five straight qtrs. They were notably strong in the latest two qtrs, and WON's formula for EPS overweighs the latest two. Here are the numbers so you can compare them to Zacks: Annual EPS: (from 1995 thru 1999) 0.23 (0.04) 0.38 0.21 0.46 Latest 8 qtrly earnings (oldest to March '00): 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.14 0.16 0.18 Sales latest 8 qtrly (oldest to March '00): 14.0 12.7 12.1 12.8 13.9 14.9 15.8 17.2 Hope this helps, Tom Worley stkguru@netside.net chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 7:12 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TLCM to buy or not to buy Hi Walter, thank you so much for the info.. I use Zacks (www.zacks.com) site to view yearly and quaterly statements and this is what they have: YEARLY 12/31/99 12/31/98 12/31/97 12/31/96 12/31/95 Sales 57.32 54.26 55.44 37.76 39.00 (i.e., from 97 to 98 decrease from 55.44 to 54.26 Diluted EPS Before Non-Recurring Items 0.46 0.25 0.38 (0.04) 0.23 Diluted Net EPS 0.84 (0.22) (0.11) (0.04) 0.23 (i.e, from 96 to 97 to 98 lossess from .04 to .11 to .22) QUATERLY 3/31/0 12/31/99 9/30/99 6/30/99 3/31/99 12/31/98 9/30/98 6/30/98 Sales 17.20 15.80 14.85 13.87 12.81 12.06 12.70 14.02 (i.e. decrease from 14.02 to 12.81 four quaters ago) Diluted EPS Before Non-Recurring Items 0.17 0.16 0.14 0.10 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.05 Diluted Net EPS 0.21 0.25 0.14 0.13 0.32 (0.02) (0.38) 0.05 (i.e. DECREASE from .32 to .21 in the quater of 3/31/2000) Btw, could it be that I should be using earnings BEFORE Non-recurring items? I tend to use the bottom line (net earnings). Incidently, I traded my ADI for this one :) PS: I did not buy SANM after all. Check out SAWS. The numbers seems to be comparable..... Anna Sosis Walter Stock on 06/20/2000 05:23:09 PM Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] TLCM to buy or not to buy Hi Anna, Rankings in today's IBD moved up to 97 95 AAA. In the IBD "Follow the Leader" section today, TLCM is the #7 semiconductor company out of 90 in the group (ranked by EPS and RS). Earnings growth last quarter was 260%, as compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Quarterly earnings growth the quarter before were up 700% compared to the same quarter a year earlier. Maintaining earnings at this level is a nice problem to have! Sales are up strongly year over year (and also sequentially). Float is 15.9 million shares - about ideal for me. On May 31, IBD reported that TLCM had 3 funds (rated at A+, A, or A-) in the stock. On June 8, IBD reported 4 funds in the stock. On June 20 (today), IBD reported 6 funds in the stock. The information may be somewhat out of date by the time IBD gets to publish it, but I am interested in the sponsorship trend, not the absolute number. The chart on this stock is textbook cup-and-handle. Good volume dry up at the cup lows and at the handle lows. Also excellent volume clues during the climb on the right hand side of the cup. Breakout today on well over 3 times ADV. Anyway to put my money where my mouth is, I bought a full position before the close (and before reading this thread). Re-reading all this, maybe the stock is too good, and crashes and burns in the morning. Who knows.... I've been wrong before, and have the elephant tracks all over my back to prove it. I put the pivot on the cup-and-handle at 37 1/2 (making it buyable for me up to about 39 3/8). Hope this helps, Anna. Walter Stock Oakville, ON, Canada asosis@ca.ibm.com wrote: > Hi. > > IBD gives TLCM 96 94 AAA ranking. However, the earnings growth in the last > quater is negative (from .32 to .21) and the prev 3 out of 5 years it had > increasing losses. Can you explain the ranking? Is this stock worth > buying? > > Anna Sosis > > wroblewski@uswest.net on 06/20/2000 10:40:26 AM > > Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com > > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > cc: > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] breakouts > > TQNT also. > > Ziggy > > Patrick Wahl wrote: > > > The following stocks either broke out to new highs, or broke out of > > the right side of a cup like formation where the handle was lower > > than the old highs that formed when the nasdaq was going nuts in > > March. I notice many charts are near carbon copies of each > > either, showing the influence and importance of the Market and the > > sector. > > > > MXIM > > INTC > > ADI > > NOK > > ORCL > > CIEN > > BRCD > > JNPR > > TXN > > > > - > > - > > - - - - - - - - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #928 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. For information on digests or retrieving files and old messages send "help" to the same address. Do not use quotes in your message.