From: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com (canslim-digest) To: canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Subject: canslim-digest V2 #931 Reply-To: canslim Sender: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Errors-To: owner-canslim-digest@lists.xmission.com Precedence: bulk Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable X-No-Archive: yes canslim-digest Friday, June 23 2000 Volume 02 : Number 931 In this issue: Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] [CANSLIM] M Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Re:[CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Re:[CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% [CANSLIM] Getting the paper Re: [CANSLIM] 8% loss and 25% profit [CANSLIM] HI Re:[CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% Re: [CANSLIM] HI Re:[CANSLIM]DV & Investment Club Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Re TLCM Re: [CANSLIM] nvda/xlnx Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Re TLCM Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Re TLCM ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 07:36:06 -0700 From: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Morning Earl, I'm in the Phoenix area and I didn't get my paper either. Ziggy Earl Setser wrote: > Hmm, that's interesting. I didn't get my paper this morning either!!??? > I'm in the Salt Lake City area, and I know that when I miss it, it doesn't > come to work either, so it seems it's an IBD issue. I'm keeping a record > of how many days I miss it (generally it's 1 day late) and I'm gonna ask > for an extension for those days. At times, it once a week or so, but maybe > twice a month on average. Still, twice a month is about 10% of the time, > so it's worth making a stink over. > > At 08:52 AM 6/23/00 -0400, you wrote: > >What did IBD say on yesterday's action? I didnt get my paper. I have > >noticed significant distribution on the Big Board but yesterday was the 1st > >on the Nas, but with 5 days of ups - I am not that concerned....yet. Invest > >in the best only, if you're in. > > > >Some TA say that we may see a triple bottom - either at 3400 or 3000 - very > >quickly in the next 2 weeks and then its all clear. Will see. > > > >Rakesh > > > > > > > >-----Original Message----- > >From: Earl Setser [mailto:esetser@csolutions.net] > >Sent: Friday, June 23, 2000 12:06 AM > >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > >Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] > > > > > >I am also concerned about today's action, clearly a D-Day in my mind. It's > >interesting that you are counting all those D-Days this month. IBD has > >been relatively silent about D-Days on the Nas for the last week or so. > >I'll also look at tomorrow's Big Picture for their take on this. > > > >As far as my take on M, I was stopped out of 2 of my 6 positions today > >(TQNT and SDLI). I took an 8% loss on TQNT, and held onto some of my gains > >in SDLI. I have hard stops on my other holdings also (MU, KEI, GLW, WAT), > >but they all behaved relatively better today. That is, they went down > >less, and the drops were on lower volume than recent up days. MU even > >announced a nice surprise on earnings after the close, so maybe that will > >help tomorrow (up a little in the after-hours). > > > >I feel that my hard stops are exactly what I want in this kind of market, > >and I'll look at tightening them some if Friday is ugly. I guess I'll have > >to see where we are after my golf is over. :-) Good luck all. > > > > > > > >At 11:37 PM 6/22/00 -0400, you wrote: > >>After commiting 100% of funds into stocks, I am now watching the M more > >>closesly. I personally didn't like today's nasdaq action, which was > >>confirmed by one of my stocks (TLCM) retracing all of days gain on high > >>volume. > >> > >>Is any one else concerned over June's M action? While I considered recent > >>sideways movement on nasdaq to be healthy (adding the number of breakouts), > >>today's distribution day does shed some negative light. I counted 4 NASDAQ > >>distributions days in june alone: > >> > >>6/22 > >>6/15 > >>6/14 (volume slightly up) > >>6/12 (volume slightly up, but big NAZ drop) > >> > >>Dow is not that much better > >>6/22 > >>6/20 > >>6/16 > >>6/6 > >> > >>According to O'Neil that is enough to kill a raging bull. I don't know how > >>much more tolerance a fresh bull market may have for such distribution days > >>over an older one, but these may indicate that professionals are selling. > >I > >>would've liked to see a healthier price-volume action at this point. > >> > >>I am very interested in hearing what the group and tomorrow's IBD would > >have > >>to say about this. I personally have put a tight stop at DRAM (26 1/8 - > >top > >>of handle) and will watch for TLMC's action tomorrow, I see a simularity > >>between recent days and its last top. > >> > >>Thanks, > >>Alex > >> > >> > >>______________________________________________ > >>FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com > >>Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > >> > >> > >>- > >> > >> > >> > > > > > >- > > > >- > > > > > > > > - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 08:37:36 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: [CANSLIM] M More bad action this morning on the NAS isn't what we wanted to see. I've been knocked out of another position (KEI) after it plummeted early. It will be interesting to see if it and or the NASDAQ recovers later in the day. I'm down to 50% invested, and I am considering tightening my stops a bit more on one or two positions. I'm not sure yet. It may be that this little rally of ours is going to end right here! - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 08:42:49 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Good morning Ziggy, I have been guessing that they print these papers somewhere in the West (Denver maybe?) and then fly them to the other cities with local delivery. A friend who used to deliver the local paper said they had one customer who also got IBD, and they hated that it was not consistly at the paper-drop when they got their main paper. Maybe Phoenix and Salt Lake both are supplied by the same printer, and that was the problem today. I have been missing (actually one day late) about once every 2 weeks until lately (and it has been better lately, since May or so). Do you miss about the same number of issues? At 07:36 AM 6/23/00 -0700, you wrote: >Morning Earl, > >I'm in the Phoenix area and I didn't get my paper either. > >Ziggy > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 08:52:15 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re:[CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% I've been playing with a twist on this 25% rule. My idea was to lock in gains at 25% increments by placing tight stops. The plan was as follows: Stock up 25%, place a stop at 20% Stock up 50%, place a stop at 40% Stock up 75%, place a stop at 60% etc. I have considered this, but I haven't really tried it. My idea was to lock in 80% of the gains, but hang on for further gains. With this approach, you would need 1 of 3 stocks to go to +40% or better to match the gains of just selling. The real problem I have with the 25% rule, is that WON says to hang onto stocks that make the 25% in just a few weeks for at least 8 weeks for larger gains. I think that covers every stocks I've bought that went up 25%. I haven't seen a lot of stocks that stumbled around for 6-8 weeks or more and then went up. I'm not sure I have the patience in this kind of market for those. I'm more likely to sell one and pick up some other tech high flyer instead. At 10:28 AM 6/23/00 -0400, you wrote: >Thanks everyone for all the great discussion on selling =BD of all= positions >that reach 25%. This is really great, I hope it continues. I've tried to >stir up the conversation before and it hasn't gotten as far as this before. > >My interpretation of this rule is to sell (on average) every other (entire) >position that I was fortunate enough to own when it reaches a 25% gain. Not >half of each position. I heard this on one of his tapes I recently >relistened to. I don't believe I ever read this in his books. > >I believe that WON states that you must nail down some profits. In WON's 24 >lessons book WON also talks about equal dollar positions, (which is the= only >way that I have gotten this CANSLIM to work for me). > >A 25% gain wipes out three 7-8% losses. I'm sure that everyone in this= group >understands how a 20% loss completely wipes out a 25% gain. > >I believe there is a lot of logic with a 7-8% loss - 25% profit thing. It= is >extremely important to not ride losses. They are very damaging. Once a= stock >starts to go down no one knows where it is going to stop. WON states that >good stocks meeting all the criteria we impose can go down 20 to 30%. It is >also important to put money in your pocket. Just like the market could care >less who we are, we should not have a favorite stock. (Ok, I do have one >favorite stock but one day in the future I will never have a favorite >again.) > >As for stops I have never gotten them to work well for me. Lets look at a >recent example. I bought NUHC on 6/14 for $22. I sold it on 6/19 for $28 >1/8. I sold it for the sole reason that it hit 25%. Why did I pick this= one? >Because from past experience stocks under $30 seem to fall on their face >faster than stocks over $30. Had I have used stops on this stock what would >have happened? On 6/19 it traded as high as $28 =BD a 15% trailing stop= would >have taken me out $24 =BC. Very early on 6/20 it traded for $30 =BC. I= would not >have been able to adjust a trailing stop, although if someone could have >they would have been stopped out at $25 11/16. If a stop had not been used >and the stock had not been sold, then WON's rule of never take a loss after >being up 20% would have kicked in somewhere above $22. The stock hit 22 1/8 >on 6/20. WON also states not to rebuy a position for the sole reason that= it >went down. I've been there, I have done all of the above. I'm trying to >learn from my mistakes. The bottom line is I'm trying to make money. I like >WON's baseball examples. A great ball player hits less than .500. So do I. >I'm making a lot of mistakes and trying to do better. I'd like to hear= other >comments on the above. What can be done to improve our ability to make >money? > >I'm surprised that it does not appear that many people in this group have a >goal to shoot for. Let me make a suggestion. Take a spread sheet and enter >the amount of money that is in your account. Copy it down six times. In the >next column put the numbers 18,26,36,42,57.7,101. Use these numbers for the >projected % increase in your account each year. Then take it out 11 years. >It is incredible (let me say this again INCREDIBLE) the difference between >each step in year 11. > >I have made my goal 42% each year. I believe that it is a realistic goal >with some hard work. I have been spending about four hours per day on this. >Two before work, one during my lunch hour, and one after work. And probably >four on the weekends. The reason that I picked the above six numbers were: >18 average market gain over the past many years >26 double money in three years >36 double the market averages >42 double money in two years >57.7 the 11 year average of the Texas twins as advertised in IBD >101 the 5 year average of David Ryan winning the US investment= championships > > >I hope this helps many people and keeps the discussion flowing. > > >______________________________________________ >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=3Dsignup > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 10:44:10 -0400 From: Stuart_Clemons@lotus.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Hi all: I'm a newbie lurker, newbie CANSLIM guy (just got on the list a few days ago). Don't have time right now for an intro. Just wanted to say I live in the Boston area and for what it's worth, I DID RECEIVE my IBD this morning. This is a great list. I hope to contribute in the future, Sure hope the market improves today. - - Stuart - ---------------------- Forwarded by Stuart Clemons/CAM/Lotus on 06/23/2000 10:56 AM --------------------------- Earl Setser @lists.xmission.com on 06/23/2000 10:42:49 AM Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com Sent by: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: (bcc: Stuart Clemons/CAM/Lotus) Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Good morning Ziggy, I have been guessing that they print these papers somewhere in the West (Denver maybe?) and then fly them to the other cities with local delivery. A friend who used to deliver the local paper said they had one customer who also got IBD, and they hated that it was not consistly at the paper-drop when they got their main paper. Maybe Phoenix and Salt Lake both are supplied by the same printer, and that was the problem today. I have been missing (actually one day late) about once every 2 weeks until lately (and it has been better lately, since May or so). Do you miss about the same number of issues? At 07:36 AM 6/23/00 -0700, you wrote: >Morning Earl, > >I'm in the Phoenix area and I didn't get my paper either. > >Ziggy > - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 09:52:01 -0500 From: "walter nusbaum" Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Earl & Ziggy, I'm in the Dallas area, and fail to get IBD maybe once/mo. When I call, (800) 831-2525, they always extend the subscription one day, regardless whether the paper is ultimately delivered. Nice gesture, but I'd rather have the paper on time. Best wishes, Walt - ----- Original Message ----- From: To: Sent: Friday, June 23, 2000 9:36 AM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] > Morning Earl, > > I'm in the Phoenix area and I didn't get my paper either. > > Ziggy > > Earl Setser wrote: > > > Hmm, that's interesting. I didn't get my paper this morning either!!??? > > I'm in the Salt Lake City area, and I know that when I miss it, it doesn't > > come to work either, so it seems it's an IBD issue. I'm keeping a record > > of how many days I miss it (generally it's 1 day late) and I'm gonna ask > > for an extension for those days. At times, it once a week or so, but maybe > > twice a month on average. Still, twice a month is about 10% of the time, > > so it's worth making a stink over. > > (SNIP) - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 08:08:21 -0700 (PDT) From: Dave Cameron Subject: Re:[CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% Chris Dempsey posts: > My interpretation of this rule is to sell (on average) > every other (entire) > position that I was fortunate enough to own when it > reaches a 25% gain. Not > half of each position. I heard this on one of his tapes I > recently > relistened to. I don't believe I ever read this in his > books. > Agreed... I heard it on the tape; haven't seen it in print. Although I may have just missed it. > A 25% gain wipes out three 7-8% losses. I'm sure that > everyone in this group > understands how a 20% loss completely wipes out a 25% > gain. > > I believe there is a lot of logic with a 7-8% loss - 25% > profit thing. It is > extremely important to not ride losses. Chris, the only point I would add to this is something I've realized (and maybe others do as well) is that I tend to reach 8% losses much faster than 25% gains. Typically, if a stock goes against me, I have an 8% loss from the buy point in a week on average. But, to get a 25% gain takes several months on average. So... what does this mean? I'd typically hold my winners about 4 months, and my losers about one week. Let's look at what the time factor does: (Assume a 50% success rate): Start with $40,000: Week #1: Buy 4 stocks (A,B,C,D)- $10,000 worth of each. Week #2: 2 stocks (A,B) get stopped out at losses. Net cash is now $18400 (with the remainder still invested). Buy 2 new ones at $9200 (E,F) each. Week #3: 1 stock gets stopped out (E). Net cash is now $8500 - with the rest still invested. Buy a new stock (G) with proceeds to replace. Week #4: 50-50 chance of getting stopped out, I'll give me the benefit of the doubt.... Stay put until week #17 Week #17. First stock (C) gets cashed at a 25% gain. Net cash: $12500 Buy a new one (H) with the proceeds. Week #18. Since we had a 50-50 chance on the stock bought on week #17 (H), and we gave ourselves the win on the week #4 scenario (G), we give a loss on this one. So... we cash out (H) at $11,000. Let's also say that the other stock from week #1 hit its 25% gain (D). Sell (D)at $12,500. Net result: we now have $23,500 in cash - and 2 stocks (F,G) with money stilli invested. So... we buy $11,750 of each of 2 new stocks (I,J). Week #19. Keeping the 50-50 rule, J gets cashed out at an 8% loss - say $10,700. In addition, we're due for our 25% gain on F - nets us $11,500. New total: $22,200 to invest in 2 stocks (K,L) at $11,100 each. Week #20. Keeping the 50-50 rule, K takes a loss - now at $10,300. In addition, G is due for its 25% gain: $10,600. So - we have $20,900 in cash to invest - and the rest remains in I and L. So... we invest $10,450 in M and N. Week #21. Keeping our 50-50 rule, we cash out M at $9700 or so. N continues on... So - now we have $9700 in cash. We own 3 stocks, I,L,N. We buy stock P for $9700 - and we get the lucky side of the 50-50 split. Week #26. Half way through the year assessment: 4 stocks (assuming all are on way to 25% gain): I: Worth about $12,400 L: Worth about $11,400 N: Worth about $10,600 P: Worth about $ 9,900 Total: 44,300 So, we'd end up with roughly a 10% gain (taking $300 out for commissions) in 6 months by assuming a 50-50 track record whereby a loss is 8% and a gain is 25%. This would net out to 21% in a year. Not bad - but not as high as people seem to intuitively think it would be. Cheers, Dave Cameron __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get Yahoo! Mail - Free email you can access from anywhere! http://mail.yahoo.com/ - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 08:12:53 -0700 (PDT) From: Dave Cameron Subject: [CANSLIM] Getting the paper When I lived in Chicago, I ALWAYS got IBD - on time, no problem. I figured it was the big city effect. Actually there were a couple days I didn't get it - but that was only because the same guy that delivered IBD also delivered the Chicago Tribune (morning paper there), so I'd get a copy of the Tribune and one of my neighbors would get my IBD... 3 months ago, I moved to a more rural area, although not too far from Baltimore. Anyway, I've failed to receive the paper about 6 times. My experience has been like Earl's. I just call 800-831-2525, and they credit me with a day. Not ideal, but considering the convenience vs. cost - worth the small lapses. Oh yes, I did get the paper today - before I left at 6:45 AM. Dave Cameron __________________________________________________ Do You Yahoo!? Get Yahoo! Mail - Free email you can access from anywhere! http://mail.yahoo.com/ - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 10:57:57 +0200 From: Tom Gumpel Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 8% loss and 25% profit Shah, I'd answer your letter thusly: 1) prices are most likely to come to a rest, either moving upwards or downwards, as they approach support or resistance. Any successful investor needs to understand those two concepts. The 8% rule, while derived from past experience, is only an arbitrary number - a general rule of thumb, if you will. However, sometimes support will be greater than 8%, sometimes less. On the other hand, if you have a low tolerance for risk, be conservative. Remember, the market doesn't know where you entered, or where you will exit. All it knows is from the combined psychology of all the other shmoes out there. And all they are interested in is breaking even (at least). That's the basic rule of supply and demand. 2) It may be that prices often base at 25%. I don't really care one way or the other; all I really care about is that MY stocks DON'T base, that they keep moving beyond 25%. To help them on their merry way, I'll allow them upward movement, but restrict their downward movements. Why cashier on something at exactly 25%? Again, how does the market know where you entered? If the stock has overhead supply - watch out and you'll probably see that it will slow down as people try to break even. On the other hand, if you are in new territory (higher highs and higher lows), and there's nobody that needs to break even, why not try the pot 'o gold? As you correctly state, this is a momentum strategy, so why not let momentum do its thing? Horizontal movement is ok, as long as it's not trending down. You then, at least, have the ability to move upwards, with limited risk (via stops). As an example, look at pccc or tlgd. It would have been easy to take profits at 25%, but I'm now at 95% and 90%, respectively. Just my 2/100. This is a good thread. tom At 09:13 AM 22/6/00 -0700, Pritish Shah wrote: >Tom, You are right about the three concepts and that is what CANSLIM tries >to do -- execpt it tells you how to do it with dicipline. > >Profit/Loss has been discussed again and again and let me just say it this >way. > >7-8% loss requires 7-8% profit to make up for the loss -- period..... I >will let your logic figure out why more than 8% is bad. > >20% profit is because a stock generally starts basing after 25% rise in >price. > >CANSLIM is about momentum investing. You want to use your money and get a >profit/loss as soon as possible. > >CANSLIM is *not* about day trading. > > >Regards, >Shah >408-525-4263 > > >On Thu, 22 Jun 2000, Tom Gumpel wrote: > > > I have to say that I've never been able to understand the logic behind this > > 8%/loss- 25%/profit thing. > > > > These things have really to do with 3 concepts that every smart investor > > should think about (constantly). > > acceptable risk > > support > > resistance > > > > The market cares not a whit if you set your stop at 8%. You are irrelevant. > > All that matters is your tolerance for risk, support and resistance. > > Sometimes stops will be tight, sometimes they're wide. But an arbitrary > > percent? Why not 7.95? > > > > I recommend supplementing WON with other good reading see the canslim faq: > > http://home.talkcity.com//MoneySt/dbphoenix/WorkshopD.htm > > > > > > Tom (the other one) > > > > At 12:13 AM 21/6/00 -0400, Tom Worley wrote: > > >In an article many years old now (about 10), and published in a > > >trade journal for brokers, WON took a much simpler approach. > > >Start with a hard (or mental) stop down 8% from your entry point > > >(after first picking a correct entry as a stock broke out on vol > > >from a well formed base). This is intended to protect against > > >major loss of capital. Ideally this stop would allow you to hold > > >back to the bottom of this well formed base. Once the stock had > > >moved up 15% from your entry (no discussion on whether you > > >included brokerage fees in your cost basis), then move the stop > > >to down 8% from the prior high closing. At this point you have > > >begun to protect profits. If the stock continued to move higher, > > >then continue to adjust the stop so that it is always 8% below > > >the prior high closing. Never adjust the stop down, if you are > > >stopped out at this point, you still take away a profit. > > > > > >Course, this was back in the good ole days when a 1% move in a > > >major index really deserved to be headline news. > > > > > >Tom Worley > > >stkguru@netside.net > > >chat with me at ICQ # 5568838 > > >get ICQ software at http://www.icq.com/icqhomepage.html > > > > > > > > >----- Original Message ----- > > >From: Earl Setser > > >To: > > >Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 11:44 PM > > >Subject: RE: [CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% > > > > > > > > >Here is my new sell approach. Any comments, jeers, or others are > > >welcome. > > >The idea is to start with a -8% stop and transition it to a -15% > > >trailing > > >stop as the stock advances. I've just started trying this, and I > > >haven't > > >been chased out of anything based on these rules yet. These are > > >based on > > >closing numbers: > > > > > >Closing High Hard Stop > > >After buy Buy-8% > > >Buy+2% Buy-7% > > >Buy+4% Buy-6% > > >Buy+6% Buy-5% > > >Buy+8% Buy-4% > > >Buy+10% Buy-3% > > >Buy+12% Buy-2% > > >Buy+14% Buy-1% > > >Buy+15% High-15% > > >or more > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >At 08:11 PM 6/20/00 -0500, you wrote: > > > >why not buy more and keep a tight trailing stop when it hits 10% > > >gain and > > > >more at 20% gain. Ride the hell out of a winner and immediatly > > >drop a looser > > > > > > > >-----Original Message----- > > > >From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > >[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of chris > > >dempsey > > > >Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 7:34 PM > > > >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > > > >Subject: [CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% > > > > > > > > > > > >Just a reminder of a rule by WON on one of his tapes (I don't > > >think it's in > > > >either book). To sell half of all positions getting to a 25% > > >gain. > > > > > > > >I have bought 27 positions since 5/24/00. Seven of these have > > >hit the up 25% > > > >mark. Four were sold for no other reason than hitting 25%. All > > >of which are > > > >still below where I sold them. Just luck I'm sure. Of the other > > >three one is > > > >above , one at, and one below the 25% mark. I think this is a > > >good rule to > > > >keep you in the money. However all of these stocks hit 25% > > >rather quickly > > > >which takes you to another rule that says you don't do anything > > >with these > > > >positions for eight weeks for further gains. Two stocks were > > >sold at an 8% > > > >and change loss and three stocks were sold at small gains. I > > >think it was > > > >Earl that requested that I keep him posted. Selling is the area > > >I need > > > >improving in and I am hoping this helps, only time will tell. > > > > > > > >The seven to hit 25% were: > > > > > > > >RFMD > > > >ELNT > > > >FLEX > > > >NUHC > > > >TLGD > > > >TECH > > > >MEDI > > > > > > > >Which brings me to another question. Since I don't like hard > > >stops and use > > > >clothing values to see if the 7-8% rule has been broken, I got > > >stuck with a > > > >couple of stock that broke this rule and then some while I was > > >at a couple > > > >day seminar. Has anyone calculated a point where it is too late > > >to sell, if > > > >all the reasons you bought the stock still exist including a RS > > >of 80+? > > > > > > > >______________________________________________ > > > >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com > > > >Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > > > > > > > > >- > > > > =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= > > Tom Gumpel > > Department of Special Education 972-2-588-2165 > > School of > Education Fax: 972-2-588-2045 > > The Hebrew University of Jerusalem in US: 877-258-9406 > > Jerusalem, ISRAEL 91905 > > http://pluto.mscc.huji.ac.il/~msgumpel/main.htm > > VISUALIZE WHIRLED PEAS! > > > > > > - > > > > > > >- =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= Tom Gumpel Department of Special Education 972-2-588-2165 School of Education Fax: 972-2-588-2045 The Hebrew University of Jerusalem in US: 877-258-9406 Jerusalem, ISRAEL 91905 http://pluto.mscc.huji.ac.il/~msgumpel/main.htm VISUALIZE WHIRLED PEAS! - - ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 22 Jun 2000 22:36:47 -0400 From: Dan Forant Subject: [CANSLIM] HI Glad I found this group. I read a couple books using the canslim method and subscribe to the IBD paper. At first being a new to the market I didn't have faith in the system as I call it. I suffered some. Lately I have been successful buying and selling using it. It really does work. It's a very tricky market, but money can be made. NIPNY (NEC) is my latest conquest. Dan - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 13:28:09 -0400 (EDT) From: chris dempsey Subject: Re:[CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% Great post Dave. Definitely the losses come quicker than the gains. But to these you should say thank you very much (for being quick) sell and go on. When I first started I did what you have below only on week #17 day 1 MER downgrades stock C, sell it for a loss. Then on week #17 day 2 PWJ downgrades stock D and I sell it for a loss. I don't believe it was week 17, actually I think that it was a bit longer. But this did truly happen to me on back to back days after several months. So be thankful when it happens quickly and move on. I then new that something had to change. I didn't change over night but over time I realized that the dollar figure needed to be equal each time I enter an order. This means that when I lose money on a position the next position does not have to be more to offset the loss. In order to do this the number of positions has to be greater than 4. I have since come up with twenty. Its hard to hold twenty stocks as they continually get stopped out and brokerage firm down grades, but at the same time you just keep buying the stocks on your list that are breaking out of areas that you believe have great potential for profit. This is what keeps me busy four hours per day. Now when the big brokerage firms speak they are only messing with 5% of my portfolio and really only a portion of that. From: Dave Cameron [dfcameron@yahoo.com] Sent: Friday, June 23, 2000 10:08 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: Re:[CANSLIM]Sell 1/2 of all positions that reach 25% Chris, the only point I would add to this is something I've realized (and maybe others do as well) is that I tend to reach 8% losses much faster than 25% gains. Typically, if a stock goes against me, I have an 8% loss from the buy point in a week on average. But, to get a 25% gain takes several months on average. So... what does this mean? I'd typically hold my winners about 4 months, and my losers about one week. Let's look at what the time factor does: (Assume a 50% success rate): Start with $40,000: Week #1: Buy 4 stocks (A,B,C,D)- $10,000 worth of each. Week #2: 2 stocks (A,B) get stopped out at losses. Net cash is now $18400 (with the remainder still invested). Buy 2 new ones at $9200 (E,F) each. Week #3: 1 stock gets stopped out (E). Net cash is now $8500 - with the rest still invested. Buy a new stock (G) with proceeds to replace. Week #4: 50-50 chance of getting stopped out, I'll give me the benefit of the doubt.... Stay put until week #17 Week #17. First stock (C) gets cashed at a 25% gain. Net cash: $12500 Buy a new one (H) with the proceeds. ... ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 13:07:11 -0400 From: Dan Forant Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] HI Posting to my own post, hope some of you jumped on NIPNY. Up 6 1/8 Fri, 1 pm Eastern. At 10:36 PM 6/22/00 -0400, you wrote: >Glad I found this group. I read a couple books using the canslim method and >subscribe to the IBD paper. At first being a new to the market I didn't >have faith in the system as I call it. I suffered some. Lately I have been >successful buying and selling using it. It really does work. It's a very >tricky market, but money can be made. NIPNY (NEC) is my latest conquest. > >Dan > >- > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 13:42:30 -0400 (EDT) From: chris dempsey Subject: Re:[CANSLIM]DV & Investment Club Susan I would question why you picked DV. On June 16 (the last time I documented the group rank) the rank was 24. This is the best I've ever seen this group and this is great news. However what type of investment club do you have. Are you using the CANSLIM method? It is very easy to get stopped out of a stock and your timing has to be perfect. How often do you get together? This could hamper your buy timing! Does your group have an exit strategy? I would think that this stock needs an exit strategy. I, and others I'm sure would like to hear more about your investment club!! From: Susan Strouse [sstrouse@cruzio.com] Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2000 1:56 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: [CANSLIM] DV I have been following DV (93 84 AAB) and have seen what I think is a cup and handle. At the end of the handle (or what I thought to be a handle) it has started to trend up. I would appreciate any comments on this chart. I would like to recommend it to my investment club. ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 14:52:37 -0400 From: asosis@ca.ibm.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Re TLCM So how about that 12% drop on 300%+ volume? I am new to this and did not know how to handle it. So I sold and took a little loss, about a couple %. Why you ask? Well, fear is one. (I know, this is BAD). But the stock did violate the first line of support, namely the high of the handle. It did not go past the 33-34 base support. It seems to be stable around the B/O level now. So here's the question: Do I buy back? Anna Sosis Alexander T on 06/22/2000 11:37:38 PM Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: Subject: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] After commiting 100% of funds into stocks, I am now watching the M more closesly. I personally didn't like today's nasdaq action, which was confirmed by one of my stocks (TLCM) retracing all of days gain on high volume. Is any one else concerned over June's M action? While I considered recent sideways movement on nasdaq to be healthy (adding the number of breakouts), today's distribution day does shed some negative light. I counted 4 NASDAQ distributions days in june alone: 6/22 6/15 6/14 (volume slightly up) 6/12 (volume slightly up, but big NAZ drop) Dow is not that much better 6/22 6/20 6/16 6/6 According to O'Neil that is enough to kill a raging bull. I don't know how much more tolerance a fresh bull market may have for such distribution days over an older one, but these may indicate that professionals are selling. I would've liked to see a healthier price-volume action at this point. I am very interested in hearing what the group and tomorrow's IBD would have to say about this. I personally have put a tight stop at DRAM (26 1/8 - top of handle) and will watch for TLMC's action tomorrow, I see a simularity between recent days and its last top. Thanks, Alex ______________________________________________ FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup - - - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 15:03:01 EDT From: BIKEAR@aol.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] nvda/xlnx I bought NVDA at $135. I really don't know why I bought it and should I sell or hold...I bought XLNX at 66 and 85........selling or holding are the hardest things...I really haven't lost any but I have not made any $....hope to hear bubbet - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 13:08:52 -0600 From: Earl Setser Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Re TLCM Generally, the two WON sell rules should be somewhat of a guide. The first is the -7-8% loss limit. The second, it to not let a stock that's gone up 15-20% get back into negative territory. I don't know exactly where you bought, but I would guess this stock was probably up 15% at some point. I use closing numbers to watch these gains, so that gets closer. If it was up well from your buy, you probably should have exited. If not, I think you were still wise to exit when you did. The stock looked very weak at the time, and whether it will turn is always anyones guess. As far as buying back, that's not clear to me. I've been kicked out of 1/2 my positions yesterday and today, and all three stocks are up since my sell. However, I think this M action is very suspect, and personally, I'm okay with staying partially invested right now. I want to see at least one good solid volume up day on the NAS before I put this cash back at risk. o At 02:52 PM 6/23/00 -0400, you wrote: > > >So how about that 12% drop on 300%+ volume? >I am new to this and did not know how to handle it. So I sold and took a >little loss, about a couple %. Why you ask? Well, fear is one. (I know, >this is BAD). But the stock did violate the first line of support, namely >the high of the handle. It did not go past the 33-34 base support. It >seems to be stable around the B/O level now. So here's the question: Do I >buy back? > >Anna Sosis > > >Alexander T on 06/22/2000 11:37:38 PM > >Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com > >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >cc: >Subject: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] > > > > >After commiting 100% of funds into stocks, I am now watching the M more >closesly. I personally didn't like today's nasdaq action, which was >confirmed by one of my stocks (TLCM) retracing all of days gain on high >volume. > >Is any one else concerned over June's M action? While I considered recent >sideways movement on nasdaq to be healthy (adding the number of breakouts), >today's distribution day does shed some negative light. I counted 4 NASDAQ >distributions days in june alone: > >6/22 >6/15 >6/14 (volume slightly up) >6/12 (volume slightly up, but big NAZ drop) > >Dow is not that much better >6/22 >6/20 >6/16 >6/6 > >According to O'Neil that is enough to kill a raging bull. I don't know how >much more tolerance a fresh bull market may have for such distribution days >over an older one, but these may indicate that professionals are selling. >I >would've liked to see a healthier price-volume action at this point. > >I am very interested in hearing what the group and tomorrow's IBD would >have >to say about this. I personally have put a tight stop at DRAM (26 1/8 - >top >of handle) and will watch for TLMC's action tomorrow, I see a simularity >between recent days and its last top. > >Thanks, >Alex > > >______________________________________________ >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > > >- > > > > > >- > > > - - ------------------------------ Date: Fri, 23 Jun 2000 15:22:17 -0400 From: asosis@ca.ibm.com Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Re TLCM Thank you, Earl. I was up on it about 15% and the only reason I did not break even on exit is because I did not have a hard stop on it. By the time I sold it it was slightly below my purchase price. I have to admit selling is a difficult business. I am very grateful to the members of this group who share their wisdom and past experiences. Anna Sosis Earl Setser on 06/23/2000 03:08:52 PM Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com To: canslim@lists.xmission.com cc: Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] Re TLCM Generally, the two WON sell rules should be somewhat of a guide. The first is the -7-8% loss limit. The second, it to not let a stock that's gone up 15-20% get back into negative territory. I don't know exactly where you bought, but I would guess this stock was probably up 15% at some point. I use closing numbers to watch these gains, so that gets closer. If it was up well from your buy, you probably should have exited. If not, I think you were still wise to exit when you did. The stock looked very weak at the time, and whether it will turn is always anyones guess. As far as buying back, that's not clear to me. I've been kicked out of 1/2 my positions yesterday and today, and all three stocks are up since my sell. However, I think this M action is very suspect, and personally, I'm okay with staying partially invested right now. I want to see at least one good solid volume up day on the NAS before I put this cash back at risk. o At 02:52 PM 6/23/00 -0400, you wrote: > > >So how about that 12% drop on 300%+ volume? >I am new to this and did not know how to handle it. So I sold and took a >little loss, about a couple %. Why you ask? Well, fear is one. (I know, >this is BAD). But the stock did violate the first line of support, namely >the high of the handle. It did not go past the 33-34 base support. It >seems to be stable around the B/O level now. So here's the question: Do I >buy back? > >Anna Sosis > > >Alexander T on 06/22/2000 11:37:38 PM > >Please respond to canslim@lists.xmission.com > >To: canslim@lists.xmission.com >cc: >Subject: [CANSLIM] cansli[M] > > > > >After commiting 100% of funds into stocks, I am now watching the M more >closesly. I personally didn't like today's nasdaq action, which was >confirmed by one of my stocks (TLCM) retracing all of days gain on high >volume. > >Is any one else concerned over June's M action? While I considered recent >sideways movement on nasdaq to be healthy (adding the number of breakouts), >today's distribution day does shed some negative light. I counted 4 NASDAQ >distributions days in june alone: > >6/22 >6/15 >6/14 (volume slightly up) >6/12 (volume slightly up, but big NAZ drop) > >Dow is not that much better >6/22 >6/20 >6/16 >6/6 > >According to O'Neil that is enough to kill a raging bull. I don't know how >much more tolerance a fresh bull market may have for such distribution days >over an older one, but these may indicate that professionals are selling. >I >would've liked to see a healthier price-volume action at this point. > >I am very interested in hearing what the group and tomorrow's IBD would >have >to say about this. I personally have put a tight stop at DRAM (26 1/8 - >top >of handle) and will watch for TLMC's action tomorrow, I see a simularity >between recent days and its last top. > >Thanks, >Alex > > >______________________________________________ >FREE Personalized Email at Mail.com >Sign up at http://www.mail.com/?sr=signup > > >- > > > > > >- > > > - - - - ------------------------------ End of canslim-digest V2 #931 ***************************** To unsubscribe to canslim-digest, send an email to "majordomo@xmission.com" with "unsubscribe canslim-digest" in the body of the message. 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